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11/14/12-11/17/12

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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.

Saturday, November 17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-3) by 3.5 over Miami, Ohio- The only road win for the RedHawks this season came at Akron and that was only by a TD.
Central Michigan won 30-16. the computer won SU, won ATS.

Washington (-21) by 24.15 over COLORADO - Washington has added almost 8 points to its margin since the preseason and Colorado has lost all three of its previous PAC-12 home games by at least 28 points.
Washington won 38-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MARSHALL (-1) by 5.27 over Houston - Houston's only win away from its own stadium came vs. Rice in Reliant Stadium, though Marshall is only 2-3 at home. The trend simply points in the Herd's direction and a 1-point spread is less than home field advantage.
Marshall won 44-41. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PENN STATE (-14) by 17.30 over Indiana - The computer's forecasted margin has climbed almost 7 points since the preseason, even though teams have experienced greater success than anticipated. The stats are close on offense but the Nittany Lions have a decided advantage on defense as they allow 100 yards less per game and 14 fewer points per game than the Hoosiers.
Penn State won 45-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-22) by 28.50 over Wake Forest - Notre Dame has jumped from a 20-point computer pick since the preseason when the Irish were forecasted to go 7-5 and Wake Forest was expected to go 3-9. The Irish already have 10 wins and Wake has 5, but the Demon Deacons are 1-4 on the road, including a 37-6 loss at N.C. State and a 52-0 loss at Florida State.
Notre Dame won 38-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CLEMSON (-17) by 19.35 over N.C. State - Clemson was 11.63-point pick in the preseason and has added nearly 8 points to that forecasted margin. The Tigers are 5-0 at home with each game won by at least 21 points, except for one 16-point outcome. The Wolfpack is just 2-3 on the road.
Clemson won 62-48. The computer won SU, lost ATS

Purdue (-4.5) by 6.11 over ILLINOIS - Illinois ranks 118th in total offense and 51st in defense. Purdue is 73rd in offense and 68th in defense. The Boilermakers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Purdue won 20-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Utsa (-4) by 7.36 over IDAHO - This one is a close call, but Idaho is just so bad. The Vandals opened the year by losing 20-3 at home to FCS member Eastern Washington. It's only win came at home vs. New Mexico State by 8 while Idaho beat the Aggies by 21 at Las Cruces.
UTSA won 34-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VANDERBILT (-2) by 6.84 over Tennessee - Tennessee is one of three SEC teams that has yet to win a conference game in 2012. The Commodores are already bowl eligible and could finish their conference slate with 5 wins for the first time since 1935.
Vanderbilt won 41-18. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 17
CINCINNATI (-6.5) by 4.87 over Rutgers - The computer's margin has only changed fractionally since the preseason. The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 on the road.
Rutgers won 10-3. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Florida State (-31) by 24.56 over MARYLAND - I called last week's game at Virginia Tech on the basis of the 'Noles road woes and am doing the same thing here. The problem here is that Maryland is on what seems like their 47th QB this year (it is their 4th) due to injuries and ranks last in the ACC on offense while their 2nd-ranked ACC defense has kept them in a lot of games. The Terps have 3 losses by 3 points. FSU's widest winning margin on the road has been a pair of 13-point decisions at Miami and USF. While FSU is 20-2 all-time vs. Maryland, the average winning margin has been 24 points and only one of the last eleven meetings exceeded this week's spread.
Florida State won 41-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Nevada (-11.5) by 9.89 over NEW MEXICO - After three consecutive 1-11 seasons, Bob Davie has the Lobos in position to get 6 wins if they finish strong vs. Nevada and at Colorado State. New Mexico has closed the gap in the computer margin by over 7 points since the preseason.
Nevada won 31-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 17
ARMY by -0.04 over Temple (-1) - Not much of a difference between the oddsmakers and the computer on this one. Army was a 3.92-point underdog in the preseason and has moved toward ever-so-slight favored status so the trend points to the Black Knights. Army has passed for just 661 of its total 4,322 yards and leads the nation in rushing at 366.10 yards per game. Temple ranks 79th in rushing defense. The fact that Army ranks 85th in total "d" isn't much of a concern against a Temple team that ranks 121st in total offense.
Temple won 63-32. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

SOUTHERN MISS by 3.05 over Utep (-3) - Southern Miss was a 16.57-point preseason favorite in this contest, but it has been a disastrous season (0-10) under first-year head coach Ellis Johnson. It's a far cry from last year when Larry Fedora led the Golden Eagles on a 12-2 campaign that culminated in a Hawaii Bowl victory. USM was 34-19 in 4 seasons under Fedora, who was hired away by Texas A&M. The school is already guaranteed its lowest win total since 1931 when Allison T.S. "Pooley" Hubert coached a 2-5 squad. The only Southern Miss winless seasons came in 1916 and 1925.
UTEP won 34-33. The computer lost SU, won ATS.