College Football
Feature Picks
Archives
11/10/09-11/15/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 56-19 SU (.747), 37-38 ATS (.493)
Last Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 2-5 ATS (.286)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Friday, November 13
CINCINNATI (-8.5) by 10.32 over West Virginia - The computer is 8-1 SU, 6-2 ATS with the Bearcats. It's 7-2 SU, 6-2 ATS with the Mountaineers. In his three starts, Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros has completed 89-of-99 passes for 1,100 yards, 8 TD's and 1 INT. Collaros got his opportunity when Tony Pike injured his arm against USF. He entered in the 2nd half of that game and quickly helped the Bearcats pull away from the Bulls.
Cincinnati won 24-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 14
Texas (-25) by 26.12 over BAYLOR - Texas' narrowest margin of victory at an opponent this year is 27 at Oklahoma State.
Texas won 47-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Clemson (-4.5) by 9.52 over N.C. STATE - 67% of the Wolfpack's offensive yardage has come through the air. The Tigers rank 2nd in the ACC in pass defense. N.C. State allows nearly 30 points a game while Clemson has allowed 17.3.The Tigers have taken 5 straight in the series.
Clemson won 43-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WISCONSIN (-8) by 9.11 over Michigan - Here goes one of those misguided attempts at the transitive property theory - the Badgers shutout Purdue 37-0 at home. Michigan lost to Purdue 38-36 last week. The Wolverines have lost the last two meetings at Camp Randall. Michigan is 0-3 on the road this season and lost to Illinois by 25 in its last away game.
Wisconsin won 42-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Michigan State (-1) by 9.03 over PURDUE - Both teams are fighting for their bowl life. Michigan State is faring far worse than expected this year and enters this game at 5-5. Purdue is actually a little better than expected at 4-6. The computer is 6-3 ATS with the Spartans and 6-4 with the Boilermakers.
Michigan State won 40-37. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Boston College (-5.5) by 11.62 over VIRGINIA - The computer is 7-2 SU, 5-3 ATS with the Eagles. It's 6-3 SU, 6-2 ATS with Virginia. UVa has lost its last three games by 25, 11 and 35 to Georgia Tech, Duke and Miami. The cautionary tale is that BC is 0-3 on the road this year but those games were played at Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
Boston College won 14-10. Then computer won SU, lost ATS.

PITT (-6.5) by 11.20 over Notre Dame - 70.2% of Notre Dame's offense is through the air. Pitt only ranks 38th defending the pass, but 21st overall. Pitt averages 408 yards with a balanced attack that scores 34 points per game while the Irish allow 386 yards and 23 points to rank 79th on defense.
Pitt won 27-22. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 54-13 SU (.806), 35-32 ATS (.522)
Last Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 2-2 ATS (.500)

Thursday, November 12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-17) by 11.19 over Ball State - The computer is 4-4 ATS with both schools. Only 1 Ball State loss has been by enough points to cover this spread and that came in a 54-30 loss at Auburn.
Northern Illinois won 26-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 14
NEVADA (-6.5) by 4.01 over Fresno State - Fresno State has dominated this series with wins in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Nevada's win last year was its second in the last 4 years. Nevada is currently on a 6-game winning streak and Fresno State has won 5 in-a-row. The computer is 8-1 SU with both schools.
Nevada won 52-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS

ILLINOIS (-5.5) by 2.78 over Northwestern - Illinois has been quite unpredictable and the computer is just 1-3 SU on its last four games. However, it's 6-3 SU on the season and 6-2 ATS. It's 7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS with the Wildcats. Northwestern has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Northwestern won 21-16. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Ucla (-20) by 13.11 over WASHINGTON STATE - The computer is 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS with both schools. The Bruins halted a 5-game losing streak with a 1-point home win over Washington last Saturday. UCLA ranks next-to-last in the conference in total offense and Washington State ranks last. The Cougars are also last in total defense whle the Bruins rank 5th.
UCLA won 43-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 24-42 SU (.364), 36-30 ATS (.545)
Last Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 4-0 ATS (1.000)
This Week: 3-4 SU (.429), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Tuesday, November 10
BUFFALO by 7.15 over Ohio (1.5) - Honestly, everything seems to point to Ohio. Buffalo beat Akron at home by 4, but Ohio won at Akron by 12. The Bulls also lost at home to Bowling Green by 1 while Ohio won at BGSU by 7. The Bobcats have the better defense and rank 2nd in the conference in turnover margin.
Ohio won 27-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 14
Colorado by 2.68 over IOWA STATE (-4.5) - Iowa State has cooled off from its 5-3 start with consecutive losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State by 25 and 26 points, respectively. Those losses came on the heels of winning at Nebraska for the first time since 1977, thanks to 8 turnovers by the 'Huskers. The home team has won the last 5 meetings in this series. The computer is just 5-4 SU with the Buffs and 7-3 with the Cyclones.
Iowa State won 17-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Florida State by 0.56 over WAKE FOREST (-6) - The computer is 9-1 SU with Wake Forest, but just 5-4 with FSU. The 'Noles appeared poised to win last week's game at Clemson but blew up in the 4th quarter. Wake only needed to stop a 4th-and-1 attempt by Georgia Tech in overtime to pull off the upset last week in Atlanta. The Demon Deacons are 4-6 and must win out to have any chance of making a fourth straight bowl trip. FSU must win its last three games to get to 7-5 to ensure a 28th straight bowl trip. It will have to do so without QB Christian Ponder who suffered a season-ending right shoulder separation after throwing a 4th quarter interception at Clemson.
Florida State won 41-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Missouri by 3.59 over KANSAS STATE (-2.5) - Missouri has lost 4 of its last 5 games, including a 40-32 home setback to Baylor last week. Kansas State has won 3 of its last 4 and is 5-0 at home this year, including 3-0 vs. Big 12 teams at home. The computer is 8-1 SU, 5-3 ATS with Missouri. It's 7-3 SU, 5-3 ATS with KSU.
Missouri won 38-12. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VANDERBILT by 1.5 over Kentucky (-3) - Kentucky ranks 85th nationally on offense, and Vanderbilt is 102nd. Against 6 SEC foes, Vandy has scored 9, 3, 7, 10, 10 and 3 points. It has been an extremely disappointing year for the Commodores which were projected by the computer as an 8-4 team but are now projected to go 3-9.
Kentucky won 24-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Utep by 0.07 over SMU (-6) - The computer's pick for UTEP is about as narrow as it can get. The Miners were a 10.24-point favorite in the preseason. UTEP is winless in November since 2005. SMU blocked 2 FG's and a PAT in last week's 31-28 win over Rice. The Mustangs have won two straight with Kyle Padron at QB who took over when Bo Levi Mitchell injured his throwing shoulder three weeks ago in the Houston game. Padron has completed 68.6% of his passes with 4 TD's and 1 INT. Mitchell was completing just 56% of his throws with 12 TD's and 10 INT's. No word on who will start this week for June Jones, but Mitchell was his Hawaii recruit who switched to SMU when Jones switched job locations. UTEP's Trevor Vittatoe has thrown 2 more INT's (11) than TD's (9). SMU enters the week tied with Houston atop the CUSA West standings, but lost the head-to-head battle to the Cougars. UTEP is 4-6 overall and must win out for any chance at its first bowl bid since 2005. 11 of CUSA's 12 teams have 4 or more losses.
SMU won 35-31. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

CALIFORNIA by 2.98 over Arizona (-2) - In PAC-10 games vs. Oregon, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State, Jahvid Best averaged under 3.5 yards per carry for Cal, so don't make too much of Best's absence (concussion last week). The best thing going for Cal is that the home team has won the last four meetings.
California won 24-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.