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11/9/10-11/13/10


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/2-9/6
Week 2: 9/9-9/11
Week 3: 9/16-9/18
Week 4: 9/23-9/25
Week 5: 9/30-10/2
Week 6: 10/5-10/9
Week 7: 10/13-10/16
Week 8: 10/21-10/23
Week 9: 10/26-10/30
Week 10: 11/2-11/6
Week 11: 11/9-11/13
Week 12: 11/16-11/20
Week 13: 11/23-11/27
Week 14: 12/2-12/4
Week 15: 12/11-12/11
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2010 Regular Season: 57-24 SU (.704), 35-46 ATS (.432)
This Week: 7-3 SU (.700), 3-7 ATS (.300)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 12
Boise State (-30) by 34.65 over IDAHO - Until Boise State stops running over people, why stop picking them to do so? Idaho allows over 436 yards per game and surrendered 63 points at home to Nevada last Saturday in a 63-17 loss. The Vandals lost 45-10 at Hawaii the week before that and the Broncos just beat the Warriors 42-7 last week. The computer is 6-2 ATS with Boise State and 4-4 with Idaho.
Boise State won 52-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 13
AIR FORCE (-29) by 32.74 over New Mexico - New Mexico's 120th-ranked rushing defense will be charged with the task of stopping Air Force's 3rd-ranked rushing offense. Good luck with that. By the way, the Lobos rank 115th in total offense. The computer is 8-2 SU, 6-3 ATS with the AFA. It is 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS with UNM.
Air Force won 48-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Stanford (-7) by 12.01 over ARIZONA STATE - The Sun Devils have only won 2 of their last 7 games while the Cardinal comes in at 8-1. Stanford may be playing its best ball of the year with a 42-17 home win over Arizona last weekend following a 41-0 win at Washington the previous week.
Stanford won 17-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

ALABAMA (-14.5) by 19.06 over Mississippi State - Going out on a tiny limb here, but Alabama has been a different team at home than on the road. The Tide is undefeated in Tuscaloosa and is statistically better than the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball.
Alabama won 30-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FLORIDA (-7) by 12.82 over South Carolina - The Gators own South Carolina about as much as any team could own another. Florida is an all-time 23-4-3 in the series and is 18-1 in the last 19 meetings. This game is for the SEC East division title and a berth in the conference championship game. In over 55 years of affiliation with the Southern Conference, ACC and SEC, the Gamecocks have just one conference championship. That came in 1969 during a season in which no other ACC team posted a winning record and the Gamecocks beat no one with a winning record.
South Carolina won 36-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TROY (-8) by 13.53 over FIU - I have to take this game for the simple fact that the computer is 7-1 ATS with FIU and 5-3 with Troy. The Trojans are 6-0 vs. the Golden Panthers, winning 5 of those games by at least 9 points.
FIU won 52-35. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TCU (-25) by 33.81 over San Diego State - TCU is winning games by an average of 32.9 points. The computer is 4-5 ATS with the Horned Frogs, 5-3 with the Aztecs.
TCU won 40-35. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MARHSALL (-17) by 21.20 over Memphis - 7 of Memphis' 8 losses have been by at least 22 points.
Marshall won 28-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Virginia Tech (-3.5) by 3.58 over NORTH CAROLINA - Virginia Tech is 21-5 in ACC road games and is 5-1 vs. the Tar Heels since joining the league. The computer is 6-2 ATS with the Hokies and 4-4 with North Carolina. Virginia Tech can claim the Coastal division title with a win on Saturday, coupled with a Miami loss at Georgia Tech.
Virginia Tech 26-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utah (-4) by 11.85 over NOTRE DAME - The Utes were a 7.4-point computer favorite in the preseason and that projected margin has risen to 11.85 which is usually a pretty strong indicator for a successful computer pick. Only concern may be whether or not Utah is hungover from last week's humiliating loss to TCU. The computer is 6-3 ATS with the Irish, 4-5 with the Utes.
Notre Dame won 28-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.




HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2010 Regular Season: 56-7 SU (.889), 27-36 ATS (.429)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 4-3 ATS (.571)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 11
Pitt (-5) by 2 over UCONN - The computer is 4-3 AT with UConn and 5-2 with Pitt. The Huskies are coming off a 16-13 home overtime win over West Virginia in their last outing two weeks ago. The series is tied at 3-3 with every meeting taking place since 2004.
UConn won 30-28. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 13
AUBURN (-8.5) by 3.81 over Georgia - Georgia has won 4 straight in the series and is 6-3 vs. the Tigers under Mark Richt. The Bulldogs also own the conference's 2nd-ranked rushing defense, though they haven't faced a team that has as potent a running attack as Auburn. That attack is led by QB Cam Newton who continues to be barraged with allegations of wrongful recruiting practices.
Auburn won 49-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oregon (-20) by 14.54 over CALIFORNIA - On the surface, it seems nuts to agree with the computer that the Ducks can't win by more than 20 at Cal. But while the Bears are 1-4 on the road they are 4-0 at home with an average victory margin of 38.75. The wild card here is the absence of Kevin Riley at QB for Cal. The computer is 7-2 SU, 6-2 ATS with the Bears. It is 9-0 SU, 6-2 ATS with the Ducks.
Oregon won 15-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WISCONSIN (-23) by 22.17 over Indiana - The Hoosiers have been playing improved defense and generally managing to not get thumped. Wisconsin also doesn't have a habit of wiping people out - other than FCS member Austin Peay, the Badgers haven't defeated any team by more than 21 points. Keep an eye on the status of RB John Clay who was listed as questionable when I wrote this. Clay has scored 13 of Wisconsin's 29 rushing TD's, but freshman James White, who has added 9 TD's, should be available after missing last week's win over Purdue. Indiana has lost 13 conference road games in-a-row and 10 road games overall.
Wisconsin won 83-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Missouri (-14) by 9.81 over KANSAS STATE - The computer's projected winning margin for Mizzou has dropped 3-1/2 points since the preseason. The computer is 6-2 ATS with the Tigers and 4-4 with the Wildcats. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder is 14-4 all-time vs. Missouri.
Missouri won 38-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana Tech (-15) by 11.30 over NEW MEXICO STATE - I just can't find 15 points of separation in the numbers. The Bulldogs are last in the WAC on defense and the Aggies are next-to-last on offense. Louisiana Tech is 6th on offense and NMSU is 6th on defense. The Bulldogs' 2 FBS wins have come at home against Utah State and Idaho while the Aggies' 2 wins have come at home against San Jose State and New Mexico.
Louisiana Tech won 41-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Wyoming (-7) by 4.54 over UNLV - These teams are equally bad on offense and defense. In fact, both teams garner more yards passing than throwing and UNLV has the statistically better pass defense.
UNLV won 42-16. The computer lost SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2010 Regular Season: 19-38 SU (.333), 25-32 ATS (.439)
This Week: 1-7 SU (.125), 3-5 ATS (.375)
PAST RECORDS

Wednesday, November 10
BOWLING GREEN by 4.79 over Miami, Ohio (-3) - The computer is 5-4 SU with BGSU and 6-3 with Miami.
Miami won 24-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Thursday, November 11
UAB by 1.01 over East Carolina (-2) - East Carolina has scored 33+ points 7 times, but allowed 42+ points 6 times. UAB has been up and down like a yo-yo. Somehow, the computer has managed to go 6-3 SU with both teams. It's also 6-3 ATS with the Blazers and 5-4 with the Pirates.
East Carolina won 54-42. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 13
KENT STATE by 3.66 over Army (-4) - There is a reason teams like this hang around the .500 mark - they're simply inconsistent. The most interesting aspect to this game is that it pits the Cadets' 8th-ranked (nationally) rushing offense against the Golden Flashes' top-ranked rushing defense. Kent State has allowed just 69.33 rushing yards per game and only Penn State and Toledo have topped the 100-yard mark against this unit.
Army won 45-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS

GEORGIA TECH by 2.08 over Miami, Fla. (-4) - Georgia Tech QB Joshua Nesbitt is out for the season after breaking his arm in last week's loss at Virginia Tech. Miami QB Jacory Harris is still recovering from the concussion he suffered two weeks ago in the loss at Virginia. Both teams have capable backups that could negate the loss of their respective first string signal-callers.
Miami won 35-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

HOUSTON by 4.36 over Tulsa (-1.5) - You want offense? Tulsa ranks 7th nationally and Houston is 11th. Like passing? Tulsa is 10th and Houston is 19th. Between them, these teams average 485 yards and 40 points per game. They are almost as bad on defense as they are good on offense. The Cougars rank 83rd at stopping teams while Tulsa ranks 108th.
Tulsa won 28-25. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Usf by 2.01 over LOUISVILLE (-1) - USF has slightly better stats on defense and they are basically even on offense.
USF won 24-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS by 2.72 over Oklahoma State (-6.5) - This pick surprises me. It's tough to go with the Longhorns with they've lost 5-of-6, including 3 in-a-row at home. They have to bust out of their funk sometime, don't they? If Texas suffers another conference loss, it can do no better than tie for last in the Big 12 South division.
Oklahoma State won 33-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Rice by 0.19 over TULANE (-6) - Rice ranks last in CUSA on both sides of the ball. Tulane ranks next-to-last on offense, but 7th on defense. The computer is 8-1 SU with Rice and 7-2 with Tulane.
Tulane won 54-49. The computer lost SU, won ATS.