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Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 76-19 SU (.800), 54-41 ATS (.568)
This Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 5-3 ATS (.625)

Tuesday, November 8
TOLEDO (-10) by 13.69 over Western Michigan - The computer is 4-4 ATS with the Rockets, 6-2 with the Broncos. Coming of a 63-60 loss to Northern Illinois, Toledo must win to stay in contention for the MAC West title.
Toledo won 66-63. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, November 10
Ohio (-5) by 5.28 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN - The computer is 7-2 ATS with the Chippewas. The Bobcats are 2nd in the MAC in total offense and defense. CMU is 7th on offense and 10th on defense.
Ohio won 43-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 12
ARKANSAS (-13) by 16.46 over Tennessee - Arkansas is 2-0 at home vs. SEC teams Auburn and South Carolina, each of which it defeated by at least 16 points. The Vols are winless in the conference.
Arkansas won 49-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2.5) by 5.28 over Buffalo - A win makes EMU eligible for its first bowl appearance since 1987 and only its second bowl game in history. The computer is 7-0 ATS with the Eagles in 2011.
Eastern Michigan won 30-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Cincinnati (-3.56) by 4.39 over West Virginia (at Paul Brown Stadium) - The Bearcats are the only undefeated team in Big East play and are 7-1 overall. WVU has dropped 2 of its last 3 while surrendering 39.3 points per game in those contests.
West Virginia won 24-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA (-8.5) by 10.33 over Duke - The computer is 7-1 ATS with UVa, but just 1-7 with the Blue Devils. A recent glaring common opponent comparison is Miami - in the last two weeks, the Cavs won by 7 at the 'Canes while Duke lost by 35.
Virginia won 31-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FLORIDA STATE (-10) by 15.09 over Miami, Fla. - The computer's projected margin of victory for this game has changed by only 0.03 points since the preseason. The 'Noles have won four straight games by a cumulative 154-39 while Miami has just one 2-game winning streak all year and is coming off a 49-14 home win over Duke.
Florida State won 23-19. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TULSA (-16) by 18.24 over Marshall - The computer is 6-3 ATS with each team this season. The Golden Hurricane are 3rd in CUSA offensively while the Herd ranks 11th. Tulsa ranks 8th defensively while Marshall ranks 7th.
Tulsa won 59-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 58-17 SU (.773), 34-41 ATS (.453)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)

Saturday, November 12
ARKANSAS STATE (-9.5) by 8.69 over La.-Lafayette - The top two teams in the Sun Belt square off. The Red Wolves were a 10.99-point preseason favorite by the Congrove Computer Rankings, but that projected margin of victory has trended downward. The Ragin' Cajuns were everyone's preseason pick to finish last in the conference, yet they enter this game with records of 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference. Arkansas State is 7-2, 5-0. Western Kentucky is also in the conference title hunt with a 5-1 Sun Belt record that includes a win over Louisiana-Lafayette but a loss to Arkansas State.
Arkansas State won 30-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Rutgers (-8.5) by 4.19 over Army (at Yankee Stadium) - Army boasts the nation's top-ranked rushing offense and the Scarlet Knights are only 51st at stopping the run. The computer is 4-4 ATS with both teams.
Rutgers won 27-12. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

BOISE STATE (-15.5) by 15.24 over TCU - The computer is 6-2 ATS with BSU and 5-3 with TCU. The computer's projected margin of victory for the Broncos has dropped over 2 points since the preseason. Both teams are undefeated in MWC play. Boise State has won 2 of the 3 previous meetings, all of which were decided by 7 points or less. This is the first time they've met outside of a bowl game.
TCU won 36-35. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

BYU (-19.5) by 15.85 over Idaho - BYU's 5 wins over FBS teams have been by a total of 34 points. These teams haven't met since 1955.
BYU won 42-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Fresno State (-8.5) by 3.56 over NEW MEXICO STATE - Both teams are 3-6 overall. The Aztecs are ranked slightly higher in the conference on offense while both teams bring up the rear of the WAC defensively.
New Mexico State won 48-45. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

LSU (-41) by 39.23 over Western Kentucky - The computer is 7-1 ATS with LSU and 6-2 with WKU. It's a lot of points to cover and the Tigers are coming off a extremely emotional and hard fought win at Alabama. The Hilltoppers are on a 5-game winning streak and are 5-4 overall after going just 2-22 in their first two seasons as a full-fledged FBS member.
LSU won 42-9. The computer won SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 23-30 SU (.434), 27-26 ATS (.509)
This Week: 4-0 SU (1.000), 4-0 ATS (1.000)

Thursday, November 10
Virginia Tech by 4.37 over GEORGIA TECH (-1) - The computer is 8-1 SU with Virginia Tech and 6-3 with Georgia Tech. The Hokies lead the all-time series 5-3 (5-2 since joining the ACC) and have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. The Jackets are 2nd in the nation in rushing offense, but the Hokies are 6th in run defense. Georgia Tech is 36th in total defense after finishing 64th in that category a year ago.
Virginia Tech won 37-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 12
BOSTON COLLEGE by 1.45 over N.C. State - N.C. State head coach Tom O'Brien faces the school he coached from 1997-2006, producing a record of 75-45. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 to get to 5-4 on the year. B.C. is 2-7 and guaranteed to miss the bowl season for the first time since 1998, ending a streak of 12 straight bowl appearances. A 28-17 win at Maryland two weeks ago is B.C.'s only victory over an FBS team this season. Both teams were recently crushed by Florida State - N.C. State bowed 34-0 to the 'Noles two weeks ago and B.C. lost 38-7 to the 'Noles last Thursday night.
Boston College won 14-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana Tech by 1.61 over MISSISSIPPI - La. Tech QB Cameron Colby, replacing the injured Nick Isham (throwing shoulder vs. Utah State), has thrown 6 TD passes and 0 INT's as the starter in the last two games. Isham, who became the season as a 17-yar old starting QB, threw 8 TD passes and 7 INT's in 7 games. Houston Nutt is out as Ole Miss head coach at the end of the season as the Rebels (2-7) are guaranteed not to become bowl eligible for a second straight season. Ole Miss was 18-8 with a pair of Cotton Bowl victories in Nutt's first two seasons, but slipped to 4-8 last year and is 2-7 thus far in 2011 with an infamous school record of 12 straight SEC losses. Louisiana Tech (5-4, 4-1) is a game out of 1st in the WAC under 2nd-year head coach Sonny Dykes. Dykes is expected to be a top candidate for the Arizona job when this season is over.
Louisiana Tech won 27-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI by 8.66 over Texas - Missouri (4-5, 2-4) has had a disappointing season, thanks largely to a 90th-ranked defense that hasn't helped its 10th-ranked offense. The computer is 8-0 in picking the outright winner of Longhorn games.
Missouri won 17-5. The computer won SU, won ATS.


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