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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 75-22 SU (.773), 54-43 ATS (.557)
This Week: 8-3 SU (.727), 6-5 ATS (.545)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 8
ARKANSAS STATE (-1.5) by 5.16 over Louisiana-Monroe - QB Kolton Browning is out for ULM after injuring his left foot in late in the first quarter of last week's 40-24 loss at rival Louisiana-Lafayette. The Red Wolves have won four straight over mostly low-level opposition, but one of those was a 50-27 blowout at Louisiana-Lafayette just two games ago.
Arkansas State won 45-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Friday, November 9
Pittsburgh (-3.5) by 5.21 over UCONN - The Panthers are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Notre Dame while the Huskies were bowing by 7 at a pedestrian-to-bad USF team. UConn relies on its 9th-ranked defense because its offensive numbers are barely existent, ranks 120th in rushing and 59th in passing.
UConn won 24-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 10
Cincinnati (-10.5) by 10.92 over TEMPLE - Temple's season has gone south from a 7-4 preseason forecast with 3 straight losses to Rutgers, Pitt and Louisville by 25, 30 and 28.
Cincinnati won 34-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Kent State (-5) by 7.57 over MIAMI, OHIO - Kent State was a 3.15-point preseason underdog in this game and has moved to a 7.57-point favorite. The Golden Flashes have 8 wins for the first time since 1976 and their only 9-win season in history came in 1973 under Don James who went on to coach Washington from 1975-1992.
Kent State won 48-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisville (-3) by 7.09 over SYRACUSE - The Cardinals hit the road after three straight home games and look to stay unbeaten while the Orange need to win 2 of their last 3 to become bowl eligible. Louisville owns the Big East's best red zone conversion ratio at 97.4% while Syracuse is next-to-last at 78.05%.
Syracuse won 45-26. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

SAN DIEGO STATE (-8) by 13.45 over Air Force - The Falcons have the No. 3 rushing offense while SDSU is No. 22 in that category. The problem for the AFA is that the Aztecs rank 27th in stopping the run and the Falcons rank 117th in that department. Air Force is coming off a 41-21 home loss to lowly Army while San Diego State is coming off a monumental 21-19 win at Boise State. Both teams only have 1 conference loss. San Diego State is already bowl eligible with 7 wins while Air Force needs 1 more to get there.
San Diego State won 28-9. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-8) by 10.25 over West Virginia - The Cowboys have gone from 1.98-point preseason computer favorites to over 10-point favorites now and have better stats on both sides of the ball.
Oklahoma State won 55-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Western Michigan (-2.5) by 3.74 over BUFFALO - The computer is a combined 16-3 SU and 11-6 ATS with these teams in 2012. Buffalo is 0-5 all-time vs. WMU though the last two games went to overtime.
Buffalo won 289-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Tulsa (-2.5) by 4.69 over HOUSTON - This game features two high-powered offenses but only one defense and that belongs to Tulsa.
Tulsa won 41-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana Tech (-20) by 21.44 over TEXAS STATE - The Bulldogs average 240 yards more per game than the Bobcats. The computer is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in picking Louisiana Tech games. It is 7-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in picking Texas State games.
Louisiana Tech won 62-55. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Ucf (-12) by 14.84 over UTEP - 20 would be a more likely margin for UCF which averages 50 more yards on offense than the Miners and allows 90 yards less. As a rule, comparisons like this are an unsound application of transitive property but, just as an example, UTEP lost 17-0 at home to SMU while UCF dispatched the Mustangs by 25. (Of course, N.C. State beat Florida State by 1 and lost to Virginia by 27).
UCF won 31.24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 46-13 SU (.780), 34-25 ATS (.576)
This Week: 2-2 SU (.500), 3-1 ATS (.750)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 6
TOLEDO (-7.5) by 7.02 over Ball State - Ball State has a slight statistical advantage on both sides of the ball and has played a schedule that ranks 31 spots tougher than Toledo (64th to 95th). The computer 7-2 SU and ATS with the Cardinals and is just 6-3 SU, 3-5 ATS with the Rockets.
Ball State won 34-27. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Thursday, November 8
Florida State (-12) by 9.71 over VIRGINIA TECH - Florida State is 1-2 on the road where they've beaten USF and Miami by 13 and lost to N.C. State by 1. Virginia Tech is 4-0 at home though the opponents have been Georgia Tech, Austin Peay, Bowling Green and Duke.
Florida State won 28-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 10
ALABAMA (-16) by 8.74 over Texas A&M - It's the biggest game of Texas A&M's short SEC history which has already been rather daunting with home games vs. Florida and LSU, both if which the Aggies lost by slim margins of 3 and 5 points, respectively, and both of which the Aggies led. The Aggies rank 5th in total offense while the Crimson Tide ranks 2nd in total defense.
Texas A&M won 29-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Georgia (-16) by 9.14 over AUBURN - Georgia has not performed well on the road but has the added impetus of clinching the SEC East title. Auburn already has 7 losses and merely looks to play spoiler.
Georgia won 38-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 34-39 SU (.466), 38-35 ATS (.521)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 3-3 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 10
EASTERN MICHIGAN by 3.85 over Central Michigan (-1) - The bottom 2 teams in the MAC West square off in Ypsilanti. EMU is looking for its first conference win while the Chippewas are hoping to notch their 2nd MAC triumph of the season. The Eagles were 8.60-point computer favorites in the preseason so the trend favors CMU. EMU took last year's game after losing two straight in the series. The trend points to CMU.
Central Michigan won 34-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

ILLINOIS by 1.09 over Minnesota (-2.5) - Illinois has lost its last 7 FBS games by at least 14 points and 5 of those by at least 28 points. The Illini have lost almost all of their 14.42-point preseason margin in the computer. The trend points to Minnesota.
Minnesota won 17-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TROY by 5.40 over Navy (-1) - Troy kept pace with Tennessee last week in Knoxville before losing late 55-48. The Trojans return home to face a Navy team that has won 5 straight after starting the season 1-3. Troy had a 9.27-point preseason advantage and has lost nearly 4 points of that computer edge during the year. Troy's 15th-ranked offense goes against Navy's 38th-ranked defense while Navy's 80th-ranked offense takes on Troy's 92nd-ranked defense. The trend gives Troy a slight edge.
Troy won 41-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

COLORADO STATE by 1.19 over Unlv (-3) - UNLV (2-8) has lost 4 home games by a total of 19 points and won 2 others, but is 0-4 on the road with 3 blowout losses by at least 22 points and 1 by 11 points. Colorado State (2-7) has just 1 win at home, 42-27 over lowly Hawaii. The trend points to UNLV as Colorado State has lost almost all of its 10.43-point preseason advantage.
Colorado State won 33-1. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Vanderbilt by 6.98 over MISSISSIPPI (-1) - Vandy was a 15.66-point preseason advantage so the trend tilts slightly toward Ole Miss. But in two road games over the last two weeks, the Rebels struggled to beat Arkansas and were blown out by Georgia while the 'Dores were running over weaklings UMass and Kentucky by a combined 89-7 and may bring some momentum into this game. The winner becomes bowl eligible.
Vanderbilt won 27-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utah by 2.62 over WASHINGTON (-2) - The computer's margin for this game is just 0.73 points less than it was before the season began. The Utes have run over Cal and Washington State at home in their last two games and are 4-1 in their friendly confines. Utah is 0-4 on the road where they faced a difficult schedule of Utah State, Arizona State, UCLA and Oregon State. Washington has consecutive wins over Oregon State and Cal and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Utah must win 2 of its last 3 to get to the postseason.
Washington won 34-15. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


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