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11/6/07-11/10/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 49-19 SU (.721), 32-36 ATS (.441)
Last Week: 4-3 SU (.571), 3-4 ATS (.429)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)

Saturday, November 10th
Penn State (-24.5) by 26.10 over TEMPLE -
Penn State is 31-0-1 vs. Temple since the Owls last won a game in the series in 1941 Six of the last seven games were decided by margins wider than this spread.
Penn State won 31-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Alabama (-4) by 5.49 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - It's the 92nd meeting the two schools. Mississippi State's only home wins this year have come against UAB and Gardner-Webb, but the Bulldogs have inexplicably picked up conference victories at Auburn and Kentucky. Nick Saban was 5-0 vs. MSU when he was the head coach at LSU, outscoring the Bulldogs 210-57.
Mississippi State won 17-12. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Indiana (-2) by 2.61 over NORTHWESTERN - Northwestern's two Big Ten wins each came in overtime against Minnesota and Michigan State, the bottom two teams in the conference. Indiana beat Minnesota by 20 points, and won at Iowa by 18.
Northwestern won 31-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Southern California (-4) by 6.71 over CALIFORNIA - USC is on a 3-game winning streak against the Golden Bears, all by six points or more. Cal was on a 3-game losing streak this season before its 20-17 win last Saturday over a Washington State team that is tied for last in the conference. John David Booty is back at BQ for the Trojans.
USC won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MIAMI, FLA. (-3.5) by 4.55 over Virginia - Miami's final game in the Orange Bowl will be attended by numerous past stars of the Hurricanes. Virginia is 3-2 on the road with losses to Wyoming and N.C. State. The road wins have ben by 2 points or less over North Carolina, Middle Tennessee and Maryland.
Virginia won 48-0. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FAU (-7) by 7.01 over Arkansas State - The Indians have lost by 17 or points to Troy, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana-Monroe. The Owls appear to be headed for a showdown at Troy on Dec. 1 for the Sun Belt title.
FAU won 34-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 54-11 SU (.831), 34-31 ATS (.523)
Last Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 3-4 ATS (.429)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Thursday, November 8th
WEST VIRGINIA (-16) by 14.65 over Louisville -
The Cards aren't having a great year, but their four losses have been by a total of 22 points and the worst was by 9.
West Virginia won 38-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 10th
HAWAII (-17.5) by 14.68 over Fresno State -
The computer is a combined 17-1 SU with these teams this season, and 10-4 ATS. The Bulldogs rank 23rd nationally in pass defense and they will have to be stout against the No. 2-ranked passing offense. Fresno State could control some clock on with its running game that ranks 24th nationally. While the Warriors are 17th in average rushing yards allowed, those numbers could be a bit deceptive BUT as Hawaii ranks 116th in the number of rushes it has had to defend.
Hawaii won 37-30. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CLEMSON (-8.5) by 6.93 over Wake Forest - The Demon Deacons' opening loss at Boston College (by 10) is the only result they have had all year that wouldn't defeat this spread. The teams have split the last four meetings.
Clemson won 44-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

IOWA (-14.5) by 11.82 over Minnesota - Iowa has scored more than 13 points just five times this season, while Minnesota has topped that number 8 times. The computer is a combined 15-5 SU with these teams, and 12-7 ATS.
Iowa won 21-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Florida (-6.5) by 4.70 over SOUTH CAROLINA - Away from home, Florida has won by 6 (Ole Miss), lost by 4 (LSU), won by 8 (Kentucky), and lost by 8 (Georgia). The Gamecocks are 4-1 at home this season, and beat Florida 30-22 in its last visit to Columbia.
Florida won 51-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
2007 Regular Season: 30-38 SU (.441), 37-31 ATS (.561)
Last Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
This Week: 2-5 SU (.286), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Tuesday, November 6th
WESTERN MICHIGAN by 3.14 over Central Michigan (-3) -
Central Michigan is the only MAC team without a conference loss, and clinches a berth in the MAC championship game with a win tonight. The Chippewas enter Tuesday night's game at Western Michigan with a one-and-a-half-game lead on Ball State, whom they've already defeated. Everyone else in the division has at least three MAC losses. The teams have split the last four meetings, but WMU has won 4 of the last 6.
Central Michigan won 34-31. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Friday, November 9th
EASTERN MICHIGAN by 1.13 over Bowling Green (-4) - Based on stats, EMU has a running advantage on the Falcons, but BGSU has a passing advantage. The Falcons have won 7 of the last 8 meetings. The computer is a combined 13-6 SU with these teams.
Bowling Green won 39-32. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 10th
NOTRE DAME by 4.63 over Air Force (-3) - Notre Dame hosts Air Force as a computer favorite by just 4.63 points after being a preseason pick in this game by over 24 points. Navy, which beat Notre Dame 46-44 in 3 OT's last week, beat Air Force 31-20 earlier this season. The last Falcon win over the Fighting irish was in 1996. Air Force has lost 3 straight in the series since then, including a 39-17 home setback last year.
Air Focre won 41-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UCLA by 1.45 over Arizona State (-6.5) - Arizona State lost its perfect season last week when it fell at 35-23 at Oregon, but maintains a shot at the PAC-10 title. Osaar Rasshan will be the third Bruin QB to start a game this season as UCLA has dealt with numerous injuries on offense and defense.
Arizona STate won 24-20. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

TENNESSEE by 2.12 over Arkansas (-1) - The Vols rank 9th in the SEC against the run which is awful news when you have to stop Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, the top two rushers in the conference. Tennessee will have to counter with the SEC's second-best passing offense against a Razorback defense that ranks just 7th in the league against the run and pass. The computer is a combined 15-3 SU, 11-6 ATS with these teams in 2007. Last season's meeting was the first between these teams since 2002, and Arkansas won that battle 31-14 to end a three-game losing streak to the Volunteers.
Tennessee won 34-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Houston by 4.26 over TULSA (-1.5) - Tulsa ranks 3rd nationally in passing offense, but Houston appears to have a significant advantage with its two-pronged attack, and better defense. The Cougars are the 17th-best passing team and 9th-best rushing team. The Golden Hurricane ranks 103rd in pass defense and 89th against the run.
Tulsa won 56-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WISCONSIN by 3.02 over Michigan (-2.5) - Michigan has reeled off 8 straight victories after an 0-2 start, including an apocalyptic home defeat at the hands of FCS member Appalachian State in the season-opener. Last week, Michigan salvaged the winning streak from collapse with a fourth quarter comeback over rival Michigan State. They travel to Wisconsin this week to face a Badger team that has lost three of its last five games, but is 6-0 at home.
Wisconsin won 37-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.



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