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11/1/07-11/4/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 46-16 SU (.742), 30-32 ATS (.484)
Last Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 2-3 ATS (.400)
This Week: 4-3 SU (.571), 3-4 ATS (.429)

Friday, November 2nd
Nevada (-6.5) by 8.57 over NEW MEXICO STATE
- The computer is 5-2 ATS on New Mexico State games and 9-0 SU. It's only 6-2 SU and 3-4 ATS with Nevada. The Wolf Pack have won the last two meetings by 24 and 27 points. The Aggies have lost three games this year by 35 points or more.
Nevada won 40-38. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 3rd
ARKANSAS (-4) by 4.76 over South Carolina
- Arkansas has only played one good opponent in its last five games, and that was a 9-7 home loss to Auburn. The 44-8 win at Ole Miss was impressive, though, because the Rebels only lost at home to Florida and Alabama by 6 points and 7 points, respectively. The computer is 5-2 ATS with the Hogs, 4-4 with the Gamecocks. Arkansas ranks 1st in the SEC in passing defense, total offense and rushing offense - three major advantages against a South Carolina team relies on the pass to move the ball and ranks 10th in the SEC against the run.
Arkansas won 48-36. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SOUTH FLORIDA (-4.5) by 5.17 over Cincinnati - After two tough losses on the road, USF will be glad to be back in Raymond James Stadium where the Bulls have won seven straight, and 9 of their last 10.
Cincinnati won 38-33. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Missouri (-4) by 7.97 over COLORADO - The home team has won the last four meetings, but that streak will end Saturday. Four points seems stingy for a Missouri team that is 7th in the nation in total offense, going against a Colorado defense that ranks 40th. If the Tigers don't lose the turnover battle, Colorado's 73rd-ranked offense will have a tough time matching points with Mizzou, even though the Tiger defense is also ranked 73rd.
Missouri won 55-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-3.5) by 11.87 over Navy - Are you kidding me? The Irish have won 43 straight against the Midshipmen. How can you NOT take them when they're only giving enough points to barely cover home field advantage.
Navy won 46-44. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Southern Miss (-11) by 17.35 over UAB
- Southern Miss has been a tremendous disappointment, but the disparity in the spreads is just too large to pass up. UAB has lost its last two games by 39 and 35 points, respectively.
Southern Miss won 37-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Wake Forest (-1) by 3.97 over VIRGINIA - Virginia was living on the edge during its 7-game winning streak, with five victories by 5 points or less, and four of those by 2 points or fewer. These teams have not met since 2003.
Virginia won 17-16. The computer lost SU, lost AT.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 49-11 SU (.817), 31-29 ATS (.517)
Last Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 3-4 ATS (.429)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 3-4 ATS (.429)

Thursday, November 1st
GEORGIA TECH (-2.5) by 1.67 over Virginia Tech -
The Hokies are 13-1 in conference road games since entering the ACC. They are 5-1 SU as the underdog since 2002, 3-1 ATS as an underdog away from home since 2002. I'll sacrifice the SU pick to take Virginia Tech as an outright winner, bouncing back from last week's heartbreaking last-minute loss to Boston College. BC is the only team that has beaten the Hokies on a Thursday night ESPN telecast.
Virginia Tech won 27-3. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 3rd
Texas Tech (-21) by 19.27 over BAYLOR
- The worst home loss for Baylor this year was by 21 points to Texas. The Red Raiders are 0-2 in conference road games this season, losing by 31 at Missouri and by 4 at Oklahoma State in a wild 49-45 shootout.
Texas Tech won 38-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FRESNO STATE (-21) by 17.16 over Utah State - The Aggies are winless, but aren't getting routed. Only their loss to Oklahoma would have covered this spread. The Bulldogs' 30-0 win over San Jose State is the only game they have won by more than 21 points. Utah State won last year's meeting 13-12.
Fresno State won 38-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Illinois (-12) by 3.71 over MINNESOTA - The Golden Gophers have been competitive at home where their worst defeats have been by 23 versus Ohio State, and 14 to Purdue. The computer is 6-2 ATS with Minnesota, 4-4 with Illinois.
Illinois won 44-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OKLAHOMA (-21) by 16.47 over Texas A&M - Oklahoma's last four games have all been decided by 10 points or less. The last three meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less.The Sooners escaped College Station with a 17-16 win last year, and took the last meeting in Norman 36-30. The computer spread has been larger than the Oklahoma win margin in each of its last four games.
Oklahoma won 42-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USC (-15.5) by 13.91 over Oregon State - Four of the Trojan's last five games have been decided by 7 points or less, including losses to Stanford and Oregon. The Beavers are on a confidence-building three-game winning streak.
USC won 24-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Sunday, November 4th
HOUSTON (-19) by 15.36 over Southern Methodist
- Aside from burying UAB, Houston's win at Tulane is the only past result that would cover this spread. SMU will be playing tough for fired head coach Phil Bennett. The Mustangs have lost two of their last four games in overtime and five of their seven losses were by 17 points or fewer.
Houston won 38-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
2007 Regular Season: 28-33 SU (.459), 33-28 ATS (.541)
Last Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 2-3 ATS (.400)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)

Saturday, November 3rd
Rutgers by 4.75 over CONNECTICUT (-2.5)
- Since moving back into the 1-A ranks (FBS) in 2000, UConn leads the series 3-2. Rutgers has won the last two meetings. The Huskies lead the Big East with an unblemished conference record of 3-0.
Connecticut won 38-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Iowa by 2.86 over NORTHWESTERN (-1) - The Wildcats have won the last two meetings. The teams have split the past six contests. The computer is 5-4 ATS with Iowa, 6-2 with Northwestern. Last week's loss at Purdue ended Northwestern's 3-game winning streak, including two games that were won in overtime. Iowa beat Michigan State last week in double-OT, but has won just two of its last six.
Iowa won 28-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
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Maryland by 9.82 over NORTH CAROLINA (-2.5) - The computer is just 3-4 ATS with both teams. Both schools are on 2-game losing streaks. The Terrapins have taken four straight from the Tar Heels.
North Carolina won 16-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



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