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10/30/13-11/2/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 81-8 SU (.910), 57-32 ATS (.640)
This Week: 11-1 SU (.917), 7-5 ATS (.583)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, October 31
HOUSTON (-10.5) by 24.55 over Usf - The 6-1 Cougars are 23rd in the computer rankings while the 102nd-ranked Bulls are 2-5. Houston was a 14.01-point preseason computer favorite, but that line has increased by more than 10 points.
Houston won 35-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Friday, November 1
OREGON STATE (-2) by 6.30 over Usc - The Trojans top the PAC-12 on defense but rank next-to-last on offense. Home field advantage alone should put the Beavers over the top.
USC won 31-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 2
Arizona (-14.5) by 21.40 over CALIFORNIA - Cal ranks 91st nationally in run defense. That doesn't spell success when Arizona brings the nation's leading rusher to the contest (Ka'Deem Carey, 154 yards per game). The Wildcats also have the nation's 18th-ranked pass defense and Cal relies on the air attack for 76% of its yardage.
Arizona won 33-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Auburn (-9.5) by 11.65 over ARKANSAS - The difference between the computer and the opening line is relatively small, but the computer trend gives the Tigers a much larger advantage in the 20+ range.
Auburn won 35-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

East Carolina (-20) by 31.44 over FIU - ECU ranks 2nd in CUSA on both sides of the ball while the Golden Panthers rank 9th on defense and 14th on offense in a 14-team league. The computer trend puts this game in the 37-point range.
East Carolina won 34-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-8) by 17.17 over Pittsburgh - The Yellow Jackets were 11.08-point preseason favorites and that margin has increased 6.09 points over the course of the season.
Georgia Tech won 21-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS (-27) by 37.48 over Kansas - Texas has won the last 8 meetings by an average of 32 points and would have beaten this week's 27-point spread in 6 of those games. Texas has won each of the last 4 home games versus the Jayhawks by more than 27 points and an average of 46.
Texas won 35-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-27) by 38.48 over New Mexico State - The Aggies have played 3 away games this season and lost each by either 46 or 49 points.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 49-35. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MARSHALL (-28.5) by 32.72 over Southern Miss - USM has lost 4 games this season by at least 41 points, including the last 2 by identical scores of 55-14 to East Carolina and North Texas. Southern Miss is 121st in scoring defense and 122nd in scoring offense (out of 125 teams).
Marshall won 61-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-11.5) by 11.66 over Mississippi State - South Carolina returns home for the first time since October 5th after 3 straight away games. Mississippi State plays away from its friendly confines for the first time since September 14 after 4 straight home matches.
South Carolina won 34-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI (-13) by 14.57 over Tennessee - The trend indicates Mizzou by 22+.
Missouri won 31-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-17) by 21.08 over Navy - Navy lost earlier this year by 28 at Duke. Not saying Duke is bad because they aren't, but Notre Dame has to be better. The Irish have won the last 2 meetings by 40 and 42.
Notre Dame won 38-34. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 51-9 SU (.850), 30-30 ATS (.500)
This Week: 1-1 SU (.500), 1-1 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 2
Clemson (-20) by 14.43 over VIRGINIA - The Tigers lead the all-time series 37-8-1 but are 8-8-1 in the last 17 meetings after winning the first 29. Only once in the last 22 meetings has Clemson topped the 20-point margin of victory and that happened back in 2000.
Clemson won 59-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

INDIANA (-7) by 2.54 over Minnesota - Of the 4 games Minnesota has played this year as a computer underdog, it has won 3 of them outright.
Minnesota won 42-39. The computer lost SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 37-33 SU (.529), 47-23 ATS (.671)
This Week: 1-1 SU (.500), 1-1 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, October 31
Louisiana-Monroe by 4.38 over TROY (-3) - The computer trend actually points toward Troy by as much as 10. In the preseason, UL-M was an 18.02-point computer pick. Troy has the Sun Belt's 2nd-ranked offense but 2nd-worst defense. The Warhawks rank 6th on offense and 4th on defense.
Louisiana-Monroe won 49-37. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 2
Army by 0.34 over AIR FORCE (-13.5) - I can't understand Air Force opening as a 13.5-point betting favorite and have to believe that this line will adjust quickly. Army QB Angel Santiago was listed as questionable on Monday morning. He has rushed for 434 yards and passed for 333.
Air Force won 42-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



ODDS/PICKS
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