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10/26/10-10/30/10


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/2-9/6
Week 2: 9/9-9/11
Week 3: 9/16-9/18
Week 4: 9/23-9/25
Week 5: 9/30-10/2
Week 6: 10/5-10/9
Week 7: 10/13-10/16
Week 8: 10/21-10/23
Week 9: 10/26-10/30
Week 10: 11/2-11/6
Week 11: 11/9-11/13
Week 12: 11/16-11/20
Week 13: 11/23-11/27
Week 14: 12/2-12/4
Week 15: 12/11-12/11
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2010 Regular Season: 42-21 SU (.667), 27-36 ATS (.429)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 3-4 ATS (.429)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, October 26
BOISE STATE (-35) by 41.12 over Louisiana Tech - The computer is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with Boise State which has outscored each of its four opponents from non-BCS AQ schools by at least 43 points.
Boise State won 49-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 30
Utah (-5) by 10.19 over AIR FORCE - Utah has outscored its opponents by an average of 47.7 to 12.0. The computer is 5-2 ATS with the Falcons and 4-3 with the Utes.
Utah won 28-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEMPLE (-27) by 33.89 over Akron - The Zips have already lost five games by 26 points or more, including 3 of their last four. The Owls are coming off a 42-0 win at Buffalo.
Temple won 30-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

ARKANSAS (-21.5) by 23.94 over Vanderbilt - The Commodores rank 9th in the SEC in pass efficiency defense and 11th in total defense. Arkansas is the conference's top passing team by a mile.
Arkansas won 49-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OREGON STATE (-3) by 3.35 over California - Cal is winless on the road this season (0-3) while Oregon State is 2-0 at home. The computer is 5-1 ATS with the Golden Bears.
Oregon State won 35-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

IOWA STATE (-14) by 14.05 over Kansas - Kansas has lost its two other road games this season to Southern Miss and Baylor by 15 and 48 points, respectively. The Jayhawks' top two QB's, Jordan Webb and Kale Pick are out with injuries, leaving 3rd-stringer Quinn Mecham as the starter. With all of that working against Kansas, a 15-point win over the worst team in the Big 12 doesn't seem like a lot to ask of the Cyclones who trounced Texas Tech 52-28 in Ames earlier this month.
Iowa State won 28-16. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Miami, Fla. (-14) by 18.68 over VIRGINIA - If it matters at all, UVa lost at home by 34 to North Carolina a week before the Tar Heels were blown out by 23 in Miami.
Virginia won 24-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.




HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2010 Regular Season: 48-3 SU (.941), 19-32 ATS (.373)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 2-2 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 30
COLORADO STATE (-15) by 13.38 over New Mexico - The computer is 5-2 ATS with New Mexico and Colorado State has four games this year in which it scored a total of 15 points.
Colorado State won 38-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OHIO (-18) by 16.04 over Louisiana-Lafayette - The computer is 4-3 ATS with both schools. The line dropped by 3-1/2 points soon after the open.
Ohio won 38-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MARYLAND (-7.5) by 2.61 over Wake Forest - Maryland is 4-2 ATS with the computer and Wake is 3-3. The Demon Deacons rank 9th in total offense in the ACC while Maryland ranks 11th. The Terps rank 5th in defense while Wake ranks 12th, but Wake has faced offensive juggernauts Stanford, Virginia Tech. The Deacs also held Georgia Tech and Navy to under 370 yards.
Maryland won 62-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SOUTHERN MISS (-13.5) by 6.51 over Uab - UAB has played Mississippi State and Tennessee tough, losing to the Bulldogs by 5 and the Vols by 3 in OT. The computer is 5-2 ATS with UAB and 3-3 with Southern Miss.
UAB won 50-49 in 2 OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2010 Regular Season: 15-28 SU (.349), 19-24 ATS (.442)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 4-1 ATS (.800)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 30
BUFFALO by 1.62 over Miami, O. (-4) - The teams have not performed well for the computer as they are a combined 4-10 against its projected spreads.
Miami, Ohio won 21-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FAU by 1.58 over Fiu (-6) - Personally, I like FIU to massacre FAU. However, the computer is 5-1 ATS with the Golden Panthers, 3-3 with the Owls, and FAU leads the series 7-1 with FIU's only win coming in 2005.
FAU won 21-9. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PENN STATE by 10.29 over Michigan (-3) - I'm surprised Michigan was tapped as a 3-point in Happy Valley by the oddsmakers, and even more surprised that Michigan re-entered the Top 25 after a bye week and two straight losses. The Nittany Lions have won the last two meetings by 25 and 29. The Wolverines rank 1st in the Big Ten on offense, but last on defense. The stat that worries me, though, is Penn State's No. 9 ranking in the Big Ten on offense.
Penn State won 41-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEW MEXICO STATE by 0.55 over San Jose State (-1.5) - The computer is 6-0 ATS with San Jose State. Each of these teams has just 1 overall win, but NMSU's came against FBS member and state rival New Mexico while SJSU's was over FCS member Southern Utah.
New Mexico State won 29-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WYOMING by 0.97 over San Diego State (-10) - The Aztecs are the surprise team of the Mountain West at 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the conference. The Cowboys (2-6, 0-4) are competing for the cellar with New Mexico, but the winless Lobos only lost by 10 to SDSU last week and Wyoming defended its home turf admirably in a 6-point loss to Air Force and a 24-point loss to undefeated Utah.
San Diego State won 48-38. The computer lost SU, won ATS.