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10/25/07-10/28/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 42-13 SU (.764), 27-28 ATS (.491)
Last Week: 2-5 SU (.286), 0-7 ATS (.000)
This Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Thursday, October 25th
VIRGINIA TECH (-3.5) by 4.31 over Boston College -
Since 2001, the computer is 61-17 SU on Virginia Tech games, and 48-26 ATS. It's also 55-21 SU on Boston College games, 42-31 ATS. The Hokies lead the series 9-4, and 4-2 in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is 13-2 in Thursday night ESPN games, 8-1 at home, with both losses coming against Boston College. As of press-time, no decision had been made on who will start at QB for the Hokies, freshman Tyrod Taylor (ankle sprain) or junior Sean Glennon.
Boston College won 14-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Friday, October 26th
Boise State (-3.5) by 9.35 over FRESNO STATE -
Boise State is 48-3 all-time in the WAC, 42-1 since 2002. However, the Broncos have played some tight games this season, and Fresno State dealt them a loss in 2005 on their last visit to the valley. Boise State entered that contest on a 31-game winning streak against WAC teams but the computer forecasted the Bulldog win, even in its preseason projections. The Broncos enter this contest on a 13-game winning streak against conference foes.
Boise State won 34-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 27th
Utah (-6.5) by 7.09 over COLORADO STATE -
Utah appears to have hit its stride and is on a four-game winning streak. Colorado State finally cracked the win column last week, ending its 13-game losing skid with a 48-23 victory at UNLV. The teams have already had four common opponents - both schools lost to Air Force; Utah beat San Diego State by 16 while the Rams lost to SDSU by 4; the Utes beat TCU by 7 while Colorado State lost to the Horned Frogs by 12; but Colorado State routed UNLV by 25 after Utah lost to the Rebels 27-0 earlier in the season.
Utah won 27-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FAU (-6) by 8.34 over La.-Monroe - The Owls are 4-3 over-all, 3-0 in the Sun Belt. The Warhawks are just are just 2-5 over-all, 2-2 in the Sun Belt. Both conference losses have come on the road. The loss at Troy was expected, but the loss at North Texas stands as the only win of the season for the Mean Green under first-year head coach Todd Dodge. FAU is 3-1 at home, including a hard-fought defeat to South Florida. UL-M is 0-4 on the road this season, 2-9 over their last 11 road trips.
La.-Monroe won 33-30 in 2 OT's. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Sunday, October 28th
SOUTHERN MISS (-3) by 7.96 over Central Florida -
Both teams have been somewhat puzzling. Rice's only win came at Southern Miss, but the Eagles won at East Carolina. UCF nearly beat Texas but was blown off the map by USF 64-12. The Golden Knights lost by 14 at East Carolina in a 52-38 shootout. For me, taking this game came down to two things - Southern Miss only needs to cover 3 points at home, and the computer has done well ATS with both teams (5-2 on UCF, 4-2 on USM).
Central Florida won 34-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.




HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2007 Regular Season: 43-10 SU (.811), 28-25 ATS (.528)
Last Week: 4-0 SU (1.000), 0-4 ATS (.000)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 3-4 ATS (.429)

Saturday, October 27th
ILLINOIS (-14) by 5.87 over Ball State -
The Cardinals have won five of their last six games, and have won 9 of their last 14 road games (they are only 6-8 at home in the same span). Ball State QB Nate Davis has 20 TD's to just 3 INT's. Illinois has lost back-to-back games after starting the season 5-1. The Fighting Illini don't often play MAC schools - they beat Western Michigan by 3 in 2004, and Northern Illinois by 24 in 1994. The computer is only 3-4 ATS with both schools this season.
Illinois won 28-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BOWLING GREEN (-7.5) by 0.84 over Ohio - These teams are statistically similar on both sides of the ball, and neither has been consistent. However, the Falcons have already won three more games than the computer expected them to, while Ohio has already lost one more game they were projected to lose. Still, the shift in power ratings between the two schools has only been a little more than a point as Ohio was favored by 0.31 in the preseason.
Ohio won 38-27. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

HAWAII (-28) by 24.39 over New Mexico State - The computer is 5-1 ATS with the Aggies, and 4-1 with the Warriors. Other than its two wins over FCS member schools, Hawaii has only one victory that would have covered this spread. The last time these teams met on the Island, Hawaii won by 21. The Warriors won last year's game in Albuquerque by 19.
Hawaii won 50-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MARSHALL (-9) by 5.19 over Rice - Marshall hasn't won a game, yet. Rice's last three games have all been decided by 8 points or less, and two of those were against the current CUSA division leaders. The Owls lost by 8 at Houston, and won by 3 at Southern Miss.
Marshall won 34-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS. Marshall added a TD with 1:23 left to sink the pick.

MICHIGAN (-24) by 18.59 over Minnesota - The Golden Gophers are having an awful season under first-year head coach Tim Brewster, but haven't lost to anyone, including Ohio State, by more than 23 points. The computer is 5-2 ATS with both of these schools.
Michigan won 34-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Middle Tennessee (-13.5) by 12.28 over NORTH TEXAS - The Mean Green has been dreadful on the road, but is 1-1 at home against FAU and La.-Monroe. UNT lost to the Owls by 10 and beat the Warhawks by 10. MTSU lost its season-opener at FAU by 13 and beat lowly Memphis 21-7 for its only road win. Oddly, North Texas leads the league in passing and Time of Possession which don't usually go hand-in-hand.
Middle Tennessee won 48-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

West Virginia (-6.5) by 5.42 over RUTGERS -The computer is only 3-4 ATS with the Mountaineers, but 4-2 with the Scarlet Knights. Both teams already have one conference loss. UConn is undefeated in Big East play (2-0) going into its weekend matchup at home against USF. Rutgers flexed its muscle last week against the Bulls and must now set its sights on doing something it hasn't accomplished since 1994 - beat West Virginia. USF has defeated the Mountaineers two years in-a-row by shutting down its running game. Rutgers only ranks 44th in rushing defense, but these teams are not far apart statistical over-all. In total defense, West Virginia ranks 4th nationally and Rutgers is 17th. In total offense, the Mountaineers rank 12th and Rutgers 13th.
West Virginia won 31-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
2007 Regular Season:
27-31 SU (.466), 32-26 ATS (.552)
Last Week: 3-5 SU (.375), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Saturday, October 27th
Arizona by 2.66 over WASHINGTON (-4) -
The computer is 5-2 ATS with the Huskies, 4-3 with the WIldcats. Historically, it's about 56% with both teams. Washington has won the last two meetings. Arizona was a 17-point computer pick at home last week when it lost to Stanford by 1. The Wildcats are 0-3 in PAC-10 road games this year after winning their last three conference road games last season. On the other hand, Washington has lost its last five conference home games.
Arizona won 48-41. The computer won SU, won ATS.

California by 0.12 over ARIZONA STATE (-3) - The computer basically sees this game as a toss-up, picking Cal by less than a point (0.12). The Sun Devils are in the mix for a national championship for the first time since 1996. That year, No. 2 ASU lost to No. 4 Ohio State on a Buckeye touchdown with just 19 seconds left in the Rose Bowl. No. 1 Florida State lost the next night to No. 3 Florida which was awarded the top-ranking in both major polls, jumping the Gators over the Buckeyes. Had Arizona State managed to beat Ohio State, it almost certainly would have won the mythical national championship. California enters this game on the heels of consecutive losses to Oregon State and UCLA.
Arizona State won 31-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

IOWA by 0.75 over Michigan State (-3) - The home team has won the last seven games in this series, but they haven't played since 2004. Iowa was favored by over 11 points in the preseason, but it's been that kind of year for the Hawkeyes as they are just 1-4 in the Big 10. However, Michigan State is only 1-3 with the only win coming at home against Indiana. The computer is just 4-4 ATS with Iowa, 3-5 with Michigan State. Iowa ranks last in offense in the Big 10, 3rd in defense. Michigan State ranks 4th in offense, 6th in defense.
Iowa won 34-27 in 2 OT's. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UTAH STATE by 1.48 over Louisiana Tech (-2.5) - The computer likes the Aggies to win for the first time this season when they host the 2-5 Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech's only win over a FBS team came two weeks ago at home against New Mexico State. The teams have split eight previous meetings, but the Bulldogs have won the last two.
Louisiana Tech won 31-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Usc by 2.10 over OREGON (-3) - The Ducks are averaging more than 46 points and 550 yards per game, but the Trojan defense is allowing just 16.6 points and 252 yards per game. Something's gotta give and the old adage is that defense wins championships. USC has won the last three meetings after Oregon took four straight from 1997-2001.
Oregon won 24-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



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