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10/21/08-10/26/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
PAST RECORDS:
2008 Regular Season: 47-12 SU (.797), 31-28 ATS (.525)
Last Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 3-1 ATS (.750)
This Week: 7-2 SU (.750), 3-6 ATS (.333)

Friday, October 24th
Boise State (-7) by 14.96 over SAN JOSE STATE - If Boise State wants to be seriously considered for a BCS bowl, it better be able to handle the Spartans by more than 7 points. However, BSU's last two trips to San Jose have been extremely close with the Broncos eking out a 23-20 win in 2006, and needing double overtime to escape with a 56-49 victory in 2004. So far in 2008, Oregon is the only team to score more than 7 points on Boise State. Though the Spartans rank higher on defense at 13th than the Broncos (32nd), Boise State has a clear advantage on offense where it outranks SJSU 27th to 101st.
Boise State won 33-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 25th
Central Michigan (-3.5) by 7.10 over TOLEDO - The Rockets fell to by 31 at Northern Illinois last week. Apparently, the Rockets' win at Michigan is skewing numbers. Look at it this simple way - Toledo is 2-5 and Central Michigan is 5-2. In the MAC, the Rockets are 1-2 and the Chippewas are 4-0. CMU has won 9 of its' last 10 MAC games, and the Rockets have only won 7 conference games dating back to the start of the 2006 season.
Central Michigan won 24-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Fau (-2) by 2.47 over LOUISIANA-MONROE - Both teams are 2-5. However, FAU has played a much tougher schedule. The Warhawks only managed a 12-point win at home over 120th-ranked North Texas last week.
FAU won 29-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

KANSAS (-2) by 3.41 over Texas Tech - Not to take anything away from Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, and the rest of the Red Raiders, but their 7-0 start has come against a relatively weak schedule that has included two FCS teams. Now, Texas Tech gets to face Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in successive games. The computer saw this as a 9-point Kansas win in the preseason and it still likes the Jayhawks by nearly 3-1/2. The computer is 5-0 against the spread on Texas Tech games this year, and 3-3 with Kansas.
Texas Tech won 63-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma (-19) by 20.11 over KANSAS STATE - Texas Tech won by 30 at Kansas State. Oklahoma is on a mission after losing to Texas.
Oklahoma won 58-35. The computer won SU, won ATS..

South Florida (-4.5) by 6.15 over LOUISVILLE - USF is supposed to be one of the top teams in the league. It's time for the Bulls to prove it on the road.
Louisville won 24-20. The computer lost SU lost ATS.

MARYLAND (-10.5) by 16.66 over N.C. State -
Too much disparity in the points to pass this one up. Maryland is Jekyll and Hyde, but the Wolfpack simply aren't very good.
Maryland won 27-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Troy (-24) by 28.69 over NORTH TEXAS -
North Texas has lost its' three home games to Tulsa by 30, FIU by 32, and Louisiana-Lafayette by 29. The Trojans are the best team in the conference, and they should win by at least 4 TD's.
Troy won 45-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS (-13) by 15.48 over Oklahoma State - A 2-touchdown win isn't asking a whole lot of Texas. Colt McCoy has completed a sick 81.2% of his passes.
Texas won 28-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 42-11 SU (.792), 30-23 ATS (.566)
Last Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 4-1 ATS (.800)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 3-3 ATS (.500)

Saturday, October 25th
CALIFORNIA (-18) by 13 over Ucla - The computer's pick for Cal has grown from 7.56 points in the preseason to exactly 13 points now, but that's still considerably under the 18-point line. The Golden Bears are coming off a 15-point loss at Arizona, and the Bruins are coming off a win over Stanford.
California won 41-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA (-24) by 16.57 over Kentucky -
The Wildcats haven't won in Gainesville since 1986, losing 21 consecutive games to Florida, but none have been decided by more than 21 points since 2001.
Florida won 63-5. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA STATE (-4.5) by 3.26 over Virginia Tech -
The computer is a combined 8-2 against the spread with these teams. The Hokies are the top ATS team for the computer since 2001. The Hokies haven't won in Tallahassee since 1974, but that only accounts for five losses because they haven't played there since 1990. Beamer was the head coach on only two of those trips which came in his early years at Virginia Tech.
Florida State won 30-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-11.5) by 3.71 over Virginia -
The Cavaliers have been a much-improved team over the last three weeks, and can turn their season around completely with a win at Georgia Tech. Conversely, Georgia Tech has struggled in its last two games with a 3-point home win over FCS member Gardner-Webb, and a 4-point comeback road win over a Clemson team that had just lost its head coach and offensive coordinator 5 days earlier.
Virginia won 24-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

New Mexico State (-15) by 9.32 over IDAHO -
Can the Aggies beat anyone in the FBS by 15? They haven't done so since December 2, 2006, and they haven't done it on the road since November 13, 2004.
Idaho won 20-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (-12) by 11.36 over Middle Tennessee - The Bulldogs lack offense, and the Blue Raiders seem to play their best football outside the Sun Belt. Earlier this season, MTSU beat Maryland by 10 and lost at Kentucky by 6. Just last week, Mississippi State was run over by a struggling Tennessee team 34-3.
Mississippi State won 31-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 24-35 SU (.407), 28-31 ATS (.475)
Last Week: 2-6 SU (.250), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 6-8 SU (.429), 7-7 ATS (.500)

Thursday, October 23rd
New Mexico by 3.49 over AIR FORCE (-6) - The computer is 4-3 with Air Force, 5-3 with New Mexico, and those numbers are well below the nearly 80% success rate that the computer has on the entire universe of FBS games.
Air Force won 23-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 25th
TENNESSEE by 1.46 over Alabama (-7) - The Crimson Tide is just 1-5 in its' last six trips to Knoxville with the lone victory coming in 2002.
Alabama won 29-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

ARKANSAS by 2.07 over Mississippi (-4) - Houston Nutt returns to Fayetteville after coaching the Razorbacks from 1998-2007. He was named the new head coach at Ole Miss the day after resigning from Arkansas on November 26. Three of Arkansas' games - two wins and one loss - have been decided by 1 point. Nutt and Bobby Petrino, who was named as Nutt's successor on December 11, are both 3-4 in their first seasons as the respective head coaches of these schools. Nutt already has a signature 31-30 win at Florida, and Petrino just missed his last week at Kentucky in a 21-20 loss.
Mississippi won 23-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Louisiana Tech by 5.74 over ARMY (-1.5) - Army is 2-5, La. Tech is 3-3. These teams can occasionally be decent but, on the whole, they are neither good nor consistent.
Army won 14-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Boston College by 3.89 over NORTH CAROLINA (-3) - B.C. picked up a huge win over at home over Virginia Tech last week, but committed five turnovers in doing so. North Carolina let one slip away with an overtime loss at Virginia. The Eagles rank 4th nationally in defense, the Tar Heels rank 59th. Both are sluggish on offense with B.C. ranked 65th and UNC ranked 87th.
North Carolina won 45-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Cincinnati by 1.67 over CONNECTICUT (-1) - Cincinnati (5-1, 1-0) is one of only three Big East teams without a conference loss. The Bearcats are 4-0 all-time vs. the Huskies (5-2, 1-1).
Connecticut won 40-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Georgia by 1.46 over LSU (-2.5) - Both are in the Top 13 of the BCS Standings. These teams haven't met in the regular season since 2004. Their last meeting was in the 2005 SEC Championship game, won 34-14 by Georgia. They also met in the 2003 conference championship, won 34-13 by LSU. The computer is 6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS with LSU.
Georgia won 52-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

HAWAII by 4.13 over Nevada (-3.5) - The Warriors have won three of the last four meetings, including two in-a-row that were decided by a touchdown or less. Hawaii is 17-3 in its' last 20 home games. The Wolf Pack is 10-10 in its' last 20 road games.
Hawaii won 38-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WISCONSIN by 3.95 over Illinois (-1.5) - Wisconsin is on a four-game slide after getting out of the gates at 3-0. Illinois is just 4-3, 2-2 in the Big 10. The Illini rank 8th in total offense, while the Badgers are 44th in defense. Illinois is only 60th in defense, but Wisconsin ranks just 47th in offense. The true advantage seems to point in Illinois' direction, especially if each teams' meeting with Penn State is an indication - the Badgers lost to PSU at home 48-7, the Illini lost at Penn State 38-24.
Wisconsin won 27-17, The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas A&M by 2.22 over IOWA STATE (-3) -
The last-place teams from each Big 12 division go toe-to-toe to determine the kings of inferiority. Each is 2-5 overall, 0-3 in the conference. The Aggies are 7-1 all-time vs. the Cyclones, but ISU won the last meeting in 2005 in a game played at College Station. Texas A&M is 3-0 all-time at Ames.
Texas A&M won 49-35. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MEMPHIS by 0.31 over Southern Miss (-4.5) - This was a late entry on the board and it became the 14th upset pick of the computer this week.  Under first-year head coach Larry Fedora, the Golden Eagles are 2-5 overall, 0-3 in CUSA. Southern Miss has lost four straight after a promising 2-1 start, but three of those losses have been by 7 points or less, and one was in double overtime. The Tigers (3-5, 1-3) have lost their last two games on the heels of a 3-game winning streak that had evened their record at 3-3. The computer is a combined 10-5 SU, 7-7 ATS with these teams.
Memphis won 36-30. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Wake Forest by 2.64 over MIAMI, FLA. (-3) - Wake Forest is coming off an inexplicable 26-0 loss to Maryland. Miami has beaten UCF and Duke for its' first two-game winning streak since September of last year.
Miami won 16-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

OHIO STATE by 2.47 over Penn State (-2) - A battle for first place in the Big Ten. Both enter the tilt at Columbus with 4-0 conference records. Ohio State is coming off its' most impressive win of the year, a 45-7 rout of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions have been impressive all year. The Buckeyes have won five of the last six meetings, and the Nittany Lions haven't won in Columbus since 1978.
Penn State won 13-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Rice by 0.05 over TULANE (-2.5) - I'm surprised the "experts" favor Tulane, and even more surprised that the computer barely takes the high-flying Owls. But history indicates this has always been a pretty tight series with Rice leading 15-14-1. Defense could win up being the deciding factor - Rice ranks 116th while Tulane is 23rd. The Owls have the advantage on offense, but it isn't that large - Rice ranks 16th while the Green Wave checks in at 33rd.
Rice won 42-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.



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