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10/18/11-10/22/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 59-12 SU (.831), 41-30 ATS (.577)
This Week: 8-2 SU (.800), 5-5 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, October 20
ARIZONA (-4) by 6.38 over Ucla - The computer is 5-1 SU, 2-3 ATS with Arizona. It's 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS with UCLA.
Arizona won 48-12. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 22
ALABAMA (-27.5) by 29.47 over Tennessee - Alabama ranks 1st in the SEC on defense and 2nd on offense. The computer is 7-0 SU, 5-02 ATS with the Tide. 'Bama was a 25.73-point computer favorite in the preseason and that's climbed nearly 4 points.
Alabama won 37-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Arkansas (-14.5) by 19.61 over MISSISSIPPI - The SEC's top passing offense of Arkansas meets the league's 3rd-worst pass defense. The Razorbacks are averaging 39.2 points per game and the Rebels have allowed 20 per game. Ole Miss also has the SEC's 2nd-worst scoring offense.
Arkansas won 29-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LSU (-21) by 22.90 over Auburn - LSU's projected margin of victory (PMOV) in this game has climbed 4.09 points since the season began. Defense is the key in this battle of teams nicknamed Tigers as LSU has allowed 150 fewer yards and 14.2 fewer points per game. The computer is 7-0 SU, 6-0 ATS with the Bayou Bengals.
LSU won 45-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BALL STATE (-1) by 3.10 over Central Michigan - The computer is 5-2 SU with both teams. It's 4-3 ATS with the Cardinals and 4-2 with the Chippewas.
Ball State won 31-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Temple (-12.5) by 12.93 over BOWLING GREEN - Temple has defeated Ball State and Buffalo by a combined 76-0 in its last two games and the computer is 6-1 SU, 6-0 ATS with the Owls.
Bowling Green won 13-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UTEP (-6.5) by 11.71 over Colorado State - The margin in favor of UTEP has grown nearly 3 points since the preseason. The Miners return home after a 44-7 win at Tulane while the Rams hit the road after ann embarrassing 63-13 home loss to Boise State. The computer is 4-1 ATS with the CSU.
UTEP won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NAVY (-10) by 12.97 over East Carolina - Navy was a 9.48 favorite in the preseason and that margin has now increased by over 3 points. ECU ranks 95th in stopping the run and the Midshipmen boast the nation's 4th-best rushing offense. Navy outscored the Pirates 76-35 in Greenville, North Carolina last year. The computer is a combined 11-1 SU with these teams in 2011 and 7-4 against the spread.
East Carolina won 38-35. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NEVADA (-10) by 15.13 over Fresno State - The computer is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS with the Wolf Pack. It's 4-3 SU, 3-3 ATS with the Bulldogs. Nevada has taken three straight from Fresno State, including a 52-14 win the last time they met in Reno in 2009.
Nevada won 45-38. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Texas A&M (-17.5) by 23.72 over IOWA STATE - The Aggies' projected win margin has jumped from 19.24 in the preseason to 23.72 this week. The Cyclones have lost their last three games by 23 points or more to Texas, Baylor and Missouri.
Texas A&M won 33-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 43-11 SU (.796), 24-30 ATS (.444)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 2-4 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

VANDERBILT (-8.5) by 1.63 over Army - Vandy has gone from being a 2.44-point preseason underdog to a 1.63-point favorite. Army's one-dimensional attack is 1st in rushing nationally and last in passing with only 46 attempts through 6 games. On the rare occasion that the Black Knights do throw, they are 118th in completion percentage at 45.7%. Vanderbilt has no offense, period. The Commodores rank 116th in total offense, 112th passing and 82nd rushing. But they do have a defense that ranks 26th overall and, most importantly, 28th against the run. Army ranks 69th on defense.
Vanderbilt won 44-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Western Michigan (-16.5) by 11.52 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - The computer is 4-2 ATS with the Broncos and 5-0 with the Eagles. Western Michigan has thrown for more than double its passing yardage (884 to 1,969) and Eastern Michigan has rushed for more than double its passing yardage (1,640 to 714). WMU ranks 110th in rushing defense while EMU ranks 75th in pass defense.
Eastern Michigan won 14-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Oregon (-32.5) by 21.77 over COLORADO - Oregon hasn't won any of its last 11 conference road games by more than 27 points. The last five have been won by no more than 21 points and the Ducks only have a 7-game road winning streak. The teams haven't met since 2001 and Colorado holds an 8-7 advantage in the series. The last three meetings dating back to 1996 have all come in bowl games. Now, the bad news for the Buffs - leading rusher Rodney Stewart is out after suffering a knee sprain in loss at Washington last Saturday.
Oregon won 45-2. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Middle Tennessee (-6) by 0.49 over FAU - The Owls are winless in Howard Scnellenberger's last year as head coach at the Boca Raton school FAU was blanked 20-0 last week at home by Western Kentucky which hadn't won a game until the previous week when it upset MTSU in double-overtime. FAU has scored 68 points all year and got half of that against La.-Lafayette. The Owls have been shutout twice and were held to a field goal in another contest. BUT - the FAU defense ranks 54th nationally in yards allowed and the Blue Raiders rank 107th on offense.
Middle Tennessee won 38-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Illinois (-6) by 2.48 over PURDUE - The computer is 5-1 ATS with Illinois and 4-1 with Purdue. Offense ranks: Illinois 41, Purdue 56. Defense ranks: Illinois 12, Purdue 40. Illinois ended a 5-game losing streak in this series last year. The Fighting Illini haven't won at West Lafayette since 2001.
Purdue won 21-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

STANFORD (-20) by 12.27 over Washington - Washington lost to the Cardinal 41-0 at home last year, but QB Keith Price is already crushing the numbers of Jake Locker with 21 TD passes and just 4 INT's to rank 5th in pass efficiency. He has thrown at least 3 TD passes in all 6 games this year. Locker only threw 21 TD passes in a season once, and only had 7 games with 3 more TD passes in 40 game appearances. Of course, Stanford has a decent QB, too, in Andrew Luck, the expected No. 1 player in the next NFL draft. Luck ranks 3rd in pass efficiency with 18 TD's and 3 INT's. The Huskies' downfall could be a pass defense that ranks 116th and has allowed 10 passing TD's. Stanford ranks 81st in pass defense, though it has allowed only 4 TD's through the air.
Stanford won 65-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 14-27 SU (.341), 17-24 ATS (.415)
This Week: 2-4 SU (.333), 2-4 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, October 18
Fiu by 1.90 over ARKANSAS STATE (-4) - The computer is 3-3 SU and ATS with the Golden Panthers. It's 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with the Red Wolves
Arkansas State won 34-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS..

Saturday, October 22
Utah by 3.67 over CALIFORNIA (-1) - Both are winless in conference play and the Utes are looking for their first-ever conference win as a member of the PAC-12. Utah won 26-14 at Pitt last week to run its record to 3-0 against the Panthers. The Golden Bears are on a 3-game losing streak in which they've been outscored by an average of 35-15 by Washington, Oregon and USC.
California won 34-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WESTERN KENTUCKY by 0.99 over La.-Lafayette (-4) - These schools were picked to finish among the bottom three in the Sun Belt, but now this contest has conference title implications. The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 in the SBC and 6-1 overall. And although WKU is just 2-4 overall, the Hilltoppers are 2-1 in the conference. The computer is only a combined 7-6 SU with these teams.
Western Kentucky won 42-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI by 0.88 over Oklahoma State (-7.5) - Oklahoma State ranks 2nd in passing offense and Missouri ranks 65th in pass defense. But the Tigers are 13th in total offense and the Cowboys rank 100th in total defense.
Oklahoma State won 45-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NORTHWESTERN by 0.23 over Penn State (-3) - The Nittany Lions make their third road trip of the season after struggling on visits to Temple and Indiana where they only managed to win 14-10 and 16-10.. The computer is 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS on Penn State games this year.
Penn State won 34-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Oregon State by 0.63 over Washington State (-2.5) (at Seattle) - Oregon State was a nearly 9-point favorite in the preseason so this game is definitely trending in favor of the Cougars. The Beavers are a disappointing 1-5 while Wazzou would improve to 4-3 with a victory.
Oregon Sate won 44-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.