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10/16/08-10/18/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
PAST RECORDS:
2008 Regular Season: 40-10 SU (.800), 28-22 ATS (.560)
Last Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 5-0 ATS (1.000)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 3-1 ATS (.750)

Saturday, October 18th
TROY (-7) by 20.62 over Fiu - The Golden Panthers have won three straight games to even their record at 3-3, but this is Troy we're talking about and the disparity in the lines is just too great to pass up.
Troy won 33-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Nebraska (-6.5) by 7.38 over IOWA STATE - The 'Huskers nearly won at Texas Tech. Nebraska quarterback Joe Ganz ranks 15th in pass efficiency while the Cyclones rank 78th against the pass and are only 79th in total offense.
Nebraska won 35-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Wake Forest (-1) by 3.72 over MARYLAND -
Maryland has been all over the map with a loss at Middle Tennessee and a shellacking at Virginia serving as bookends to Terrapin wins over Clemson and Cal. The Demon Deacons have won the last two meetings by 7 and 14 points, respectively. The computer is 4-1 ATS with Maryland, 3-2 with Wake Forest.
Maryland won 26-0. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Lsu (-3.5) by 4.11 over SOUTH CAROLINA - LSU has won the last three meetings and is 15-1-1 since 1931. South Carolina has won once (1994) since claiming victory in 1930.
LSU won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 38-9 SU (.809), 27-20 ATS (.574)
Last Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 2-4 ATS (.333)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 4-1 ATS (.800)

Friday, October 17th
BOISE STATE (-25.5) by 15.12 over Hawaii - The Warriors' last trip to the mainland produced an upset win at Fresno State and the Broncos only have one victory this season over a FBS team by 25 or more points (Louisiana Tech).
Boise State won 27-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 18th
OKLAHOMA (-19) by 10.18 over Kansas - Kansas hasn't beaten the Sooners since 1997, losing the last four meetings. However, the teams haven't met since 2005. The computer is coming in at nearly 9 points under the "experts" which provides a nice cushion.
Oklahoma won 45-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEVADA (-20) by 14.91 over Utah State - Nevada has allowed 41.5 points per game at home in losses to Texas Tech and New Mexico State. It's nearly impossible to win by 20 when you're giving up that many points.
Nevada won 44-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Texas Tech (-21) by 16.66 over TEXAS A&M - The computer is 4-0 ATS with the Red Raiders. A&M hasn't lost a game at home by more than 18.
Texas Tech won 43-25. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Fau (-4) by 2.38 over WESTERN KENTUCKY - The Owls have been struggling on offense and the trend on the computer spread weighs heavily in favor of the Hilltoppers who were 9.73-point underdogs in the preseason.
FAU won 24-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 18-27 SU (.400), 21-24 ATS (.467)
Last Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 1-4 ATS (.200)
This Week: 2-6 SU (.250), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Saturday, October 18th
ARIZONA by 0.83 over California (-2) - Can the WIldcats rebound from a 24-23 loss at Stanford. Cal lost at Maryland on its' last road trip. The WIldcats are 3-0 at home this season where they have won five straight.
Arizona won 42-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Arkansas State by 0.24 over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-4.5) - The home team has won the last eight meetings in this series, a stat that doesn't bode well for this upset pick. The Red Wolves were 1.57-point computer underdogs in the preseason so the trend is pointing toward ASU.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 28-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

CLEMSON by 10.80 over Georgia Tech (-2.5) - There is absolutely no way to measure the impact of a head coach and offensive coordinator leaving in midseason. Something tells me, however, that the Tigers will rally around the shake-up and possibly play their best game of the year.
Georgia Tech won 21-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Connecticut by 0.57 over RUTGERS (-3) - It's hard to fathom a 1-5 team being favored over a 5-1 team, especially when that 1-5 team hasn't even defeated a FBS team this season.
Rutgers won 12-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Wisconsin by 2.28 over IOWA (-3.5) - The Hawkeyes broke a three-game losing streak last Saturday at Indiana. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has lost three straight with the last two coming at home against Ohio State and Penn State. It's the Badgers' first 3-game losing streak since the end of the 2004 season, and they haven't lost four in-a-row since 1996.
Iowa won 38-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

NEW MEXICO STATE by 0.89 over San Jose State (-2.5) - The Aggies sprung 48 points on Nevada in Reno last week and have tallied 151 over their last four games.
San Jose State won 31-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA by 0.11 over North Carolina (-5.5) - I have a hard time buying this one, but Virginia is certainly looking like a much different team lately with back-to-back easy home wins over Maryland and East Carolina when it was the underdog in both.
Virginia won 16-13 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Purdue by 2.25 over NORTHWESTERN (-4) - Northwestern was thrown off the unbeaten list last week in a 37-20 home loss to Michigan State. Purdue limps in with a 2-4 record and its' signature win is over Central Michigan.
Northwestern won 48-26. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



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