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10/15/13-10/19/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 57-6 SU (.904), 39-24 ATS (.619)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 4-3 ATS (.571)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 19
ALABAMA (-28) by 28.36 over Arkansas - The Razorbacks were blown out 52-7 at home by South Carolina last week, and by 20 at a not-so-great Florida team the week before that. The 'Bama offense appears to be getting its wheels and should roll easily over Arkansas. The computer trend puts this game at 33+ in favor of Nick Saban's men.
Alabama won 52-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Ohio (-17) by 18.86 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - The Bobcats are coming off an inexplicable 26-23 loss at home vs. Central Michigan, but EMU is 1-5 and ranked 115th in the computer rankings and allows 40 points per game with the MAC's worst defense. Ohio has the conference's No. 2 defense and 5th-best offense. The computer's margin for this game has risen by over 4 points since the preseason.
Ohio won 56-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-23.5) by 34.78 over KANSAS - Kansas has the conference's worst offense and No. 7 defense. The Sooners rank 1st in the Big 12 on defense and 5th on offense. And let's not forget that the Jayhawks have lost 23 straight conference games or that Oklahoma has won 8 straight meetings by an average of 25.5 points.
Oklahoma won 34-19. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

North Texas (-4.5) by 14.47 over LOUISIANA TECH - The Mean Green have knocked off a good Ball State squad and manhandled Middle Tennessee last week. The lone win for the Bulldogs came last week versus a horrible UTEP team and only managed to win that game by 3.
North Texas won 28-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-1.5) by 12.43 over Southern California - A 1.5-point line feels like an early Christmas present and an opportunity for some payback by the Irish which are looking for their second straight win over the Trojans. The teams have split the last 4 meetings, though USC has taken 9 of the last 11.
Notre Dame won 14-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MEMPHIS (-2.5) by 5.77 over Southern Methodist - The Tigers were a slight underdog in the preseason and are now favored by nearly a touchdown. Memphis ranks 3rd in the American Athletic Conference while SMU ranks 9th. The Mustangs get 80% of their offense through the air and Memphis has allowed just 5 TD passes all season.
SMU won 34-29. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TOLEDO (-6.5) by 9.04 over Navy - The Rockets have been around a 9-point computer favorite over Navy since preseason. The Middies' offense is not only one-dimensional, but is also less potent than in years past. Navy was held to just 107 yards on the ground in a 19-7 loss at Western Kentucky and Duke just blasted Navy 35-7 last week. Toledo is also coming off a bye week which means the MAC"s 2nd-best run defense team will have had two weeks to prep for this game.
Navy won 45-44 in 2 OT's. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 46-5 SU (.902), 25-26 ATS (.490)
This Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 2-1 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, October 18
LOUISVILLE (-13) by 12 over Central Florida - UCF has faced the tougher schedule with a win at Penn State and a close loss at home to South Carolina in games which were decided by 3 points.
UCF won 38-35. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 19
TEXAS A&M (-14) by 12.46 over Auburn - The Aggies were favored by 19.52 in the preseason and that margin has dropped by more than a full touchdown. The computer trend puts this game in the 5 to 6-point range. We know Texas A&M doesn't have a defense so the question is whether or not Auburn can muster enough defense to give Gus Malzahn's offense a chance to keep pace.
Auburn won 45-41. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BAYLOR (-33) by 24.14 over Iowa State - The Cyclones are 1-4 but have played Iowa, Texas and Texas Tech to within a TD or less.
Baylor won 71-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 32-30 SU (.516), 41-21 ATS (.662)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, October 15
Louisiana-Lafayette by 4.05 over WESTERN KENTUCKY (-3.5) - The computer favored UL-L by 7.82 in the preseason.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 37-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 19
CLEMSON by 1.94 over Florida State (-3) - Clemson as the underdog on its home field seems a bit ridiculous, especially since the Tigers already have a fairly impressive big win at home vs. Georgia under their belt and Florida State hasn't really played anyone. There are so many things to watch in this game, but the battle between the QB's - the young Jameis Winston for FSU and the veteran Tajh Boyd for Clemson - rank at the top of the list.
Florida State won 51-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Duke by 3.23 over VIRGINIA (-3) - The days are beginning to look numbered for UVa head coach MIke London who is 18-25 in 3-1/2 seasons. He is also just 8-18 in ACC games.
Duke won 35-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI by 1.69 over Florida (-1.5) - This could be a tough task for Missouri after the loss of QB James Franklin, but Florida has the SEC's 2nd-worst offense. The Gators are 1-2 on the road this season with the only win coming at Kentucky.
Missouri won 36-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WAKE FOREST by 5.55 over Maryland (-5.5) - The computer is trending toward a pick 'em contest. Maryland has lost each of the last 3 times it played at Wake Forest.
Wake Forest won 34-10. The com;uter won SU, won ATS.

Kent State by 7.77 over SOUTH ALABAMA (-6.5) - Kent State freshman QB Colin Reardon is doubtful. In the preseason, the computer had KSU as a 16.69-point pick but the Golden Flashes have fizzled while the USA Jaguars have proven to be a tougher out than most folks expected. South Alabama is 2-3 while Kent State is 2-5.
South Alabama won 38-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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