|The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
|2009 Regular Season: 38-13 SU (.745), 27-24 ATS (.529)
Last Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 5-3 ATS (.625)
This Week: 7-2 SU (.778), 4-5 ATS (.445)
Saturday, October 10
ALABAMA (-17) by 20.62 over South Carolina - The Tide has beaten everyone except Virginia Tech by 18 points or more. The Tide ranks 2nd nationally in total defense and 17th on offense. The Gamecocks rank 15th on defense, but just 62nd on offense. Steve Spurrier is 0-1 as the South Carolina head coach vs. 'Bama, losing 37-14 to Mike Shula's Crimson Tide in 2005 in the last meeting between these teams.
Alabama won 20-6. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
ARIZONA (-4) by 5.98 over Stanford - Stanford is 1-8 in its' last 9 conference road games and the lone victory came against an awful Washington team last year by just 7 points.
Arizona won 43-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.
ARIZONA STATE (-3) by 13.89 over Washington - The Huskies have lost 9 straight road games overall, and 6 straight conference road games.
Arizona State won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
FLORIDA (-22) by 28.04 over Arkansas - The computer is 5-0 SU with both schools, and 4-0 ATS with Arkansas. The line had balooned to around 25 points at last check.
Florida won 23-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
BOSTON COLLEGE (-2.5) by 10.01 over N.C. State - N.C. State head coach Tom O'Brien returns to Chestnut Hill to face his former team which has won both previous meetings. The Wolfpack have surrendered 110 points in their last 3 games.
Boston College won 52-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Virginia Tech (-3) by 7.73 over GEORGIA TECH - The computer has hit 62.4% ATS with Virginia Tech since 2002 and never lost more than 5 games in season. It's 2-4 this year so the odds have to be with it. It's correctly picked all 6 Virginia Tech games SU, and 5-of-6 for Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech won 28-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Louisiana-Lafayette (-7.5) by 10.69 over WESTERN KENTUCKY - These teams haven't played since 1992. I'll repeat the info given last week when I took FIU to beat the spread at WKU - WKU has 1 win over an FBS program since beginning the transition to the FBS in 2007. The Hilltoppers own the nation's longest current losing streak at 13 straight, and have lost 18 consecutive games to FBS teams.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 30-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Navy (-8) by 12.12 over SMU - SMU's 74th-ranked rushing defense meets Navy's 6th-ranked rushing offense. Navy has won the last two meetings by 27 and 31, including 34-7 last year. In last week's 28-21 upset of ECU, the Mustangs scored touchdowns on an interception return and a 63-yard blocked FG return. An offensive TD came on a 96-yard pass. Only 1 SMU score came on a drive that lasted more than 1 play.
Usc (-8) by by 14.66 over NOTRE DAME - USC has won the last two games 76-3, and the last three 120-27.
USC won 34-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Ohio State (-14) by 18.40 over PURDUE - 4 of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 13 points or less, and the teams have split the last four games in West Lafayette. But the Buckeyes have only surrendered 45 points in their last five games and the Boilermakers are coming off a season-worst performance in a 35-20 loss at Minnesota.
Purdue won 26-18. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
|HOLD YOUR HORSES:
|The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
|2009 Regular Season: 33-9 SU (.786), 19-23 ATS (.452)
Last Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 3-3 ATS (.500)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.857), 3-5 ATS (.375)
Friday, October 16
Pitt (-3) by 2.17 over RUTGERS - Panthers have lost 4 straight vs. Scarlet Knights. Both teams rank in the Big East middle of the pack on offense. The difference is on defense where Rutgers ranks 3rd and Pitt ranks 7th.
Pitt won 24-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Saturday, October 17
Georgia (-9.5) by 1.81 over VANDERBILT - The Bulldogs are 1-2 on the road with a 14-point loss at Oklahoma State, an 11-point win at Arkansas and a 26-point loss at Tennessee. Vandy lost at home by 12 to Mississippi State, and 16 to Mississippi. The 'Dores outrank the 'Dawgs statistically on offense and defense and are allowing just 15.7 points per game.
Georgia won 34-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Nevada (-11.5) by 8.17 over UTAH STATE - The Aggies lost the last 3 home games against Nevada by just 3, 6 and 5. They're better this year and will be playing just their second home again. Nevada has a 3.8-point advantage in scoring defense and a 1.4-point advantage in scoring offense.
Nevada won 35-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.
AUBURN (-14.5) by 4.54 over Kentucky - The computer is 4-1 ATS with Kentucky and 5-0 SU. It is 4-2 SU with Auburn, and 3-3 ATS. The Tigers have averaged 45.25 points on offense in its' 4 previous home games. The computer had Kentucky under the 13-point spread at South Carolina last week and won when the Gamecocks prevailed 28-26.
Kentucky won 21-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
CLEMSON (-7) by 4.77 over Wake Forest - Wake leads the ACC Atlantic behind an offense that is tied for 2nd in the league. The Clemson offense ranks 10th. On defense, the Demon Deacons rank 9th and the Tigers rank 3rd. Wake Forest QB Riley Skinner is 2nd in the ACC in passing. The computer is 3-2 ATS with both teams. The schools have split their last six meetings. This year, Wake Forest lost its only previous road game at Boston College in overtime. Clemson beat B.C. 25-7 at home.
Clemson won 38-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
TCU (-20.5) by 17.58 over Colorado State - The Rams have lost 3 straight after starting 3-0, but the biggest loss was by 19 points at BYU.
TCU won 44-6. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
PENN STATE (-15) by 10.77 over Minnesota - The computer is 5-1 SU, 5-0 ATS on Penn State games. The Nittany Lions lost to the only BCS team they faced with a winning record when they fell 21-10 at home to Iowa. However, Penn State leads the Big Ten in offense while Minnesota ranks last in the conference in defense.
Penn State won 20-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
NEBRASKA (-6) by 1.39 over Texas Tech - The Red Raiders have won 3 straight over the 'Huskers, but the line has jumped to 10 points in favor of Nebraska. QB Taylor Potts is questionable for the Red Raiders, but backup QB Steven Sheffield threw for 490 yards and 7 TD's in the 66-14 rout of Kansas State last week. Nebraska hasn't faced an offense this potent, and Texas Tech hasn't faced a defense this stingy.
Texas Tech won 31-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
|The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
|2009 Regular Season: 16-30 SU (.348), 23-23 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
This Week: 1-6 SU (.143), 3-4 ATS (.429)
Wednesday, October 14
TULSA by 1.93 over Boise State (-8) - The computer is 84-5 SU on Boise State game picks since 2002 so I can't argue against the success. However, without former record-setting QB David Johnson and school career rushing leader Tarrion Adams, the Golden Hurricane currently rank 35th in total offense after finishing 1st in 2008 and 2007. The 8-point opening has grown to double digits as of Tuesday morning. The Broncos are 4-0 vs. Tulsa, but the teams haven't met since 2004.
Boise State won 28-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
Thursday, October 15
Cincinnati by 2.09 over USF (-1.5) - Cincinnati is 4-2 all-time vs. USF and has taken the last 3. The Bearcats top the Big East in total offense and the Bulls lead in total defense.
Cincinnati won 34-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Saturday, October 17
BALL STATE by 0.39 over Bowling Green (-4) - There is about a 6-point swing in BGSU's favor since the preseason when Ball State was a touchdown favorite. Both teams are under first-year had coaches - Stan Parrish at BSU and Dave Clawson at BGSU. Bowling Green was an upset winner over Troy in the season opener before going on a 4-game losing streak which was snapped with a 36-35 win at Kent State last week. The Cardinals are winless and rank 12th in the 13-team conference in total offense and total defense.
Bowling Green won 31-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Hawaii by 1.01 over IDAHO (-12) - Idaho is a surprising 5-1 under third-year coach Robb Akey with 3 straight wins by 4 points or less. The Warriors lost QB Greg Alexander to a knee injury in the loss at Louisiana Tech on September 30. In their only game since then, they bowed to Fresno State 42-17 in Hawaii. Alexander had led the conference at 358 yards per game and had a passer rating of 160. His replacement, sophomore Bryant Moniz, has a passer rating of 107. The Warriors have scored just 2 offensive TD's in their last 8 quarters and those came in the 4th quarter after trailing Fresno State 42-3.
Idaho won 35-23. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
Baylor by 11.10 over IOWA STATE (-1.5) - Baylor's injuries are well documented - QB Robert Griffin was lost for the season 3 games ago, along with sr. defensive back and return specialist Mikail Baker. 3rd-string QB Nick Florence has started the last two games which produced a 31-15 win over Kent State and a 33-7 loss at Oklahoma. Florence threw for 220 yards and a TD against the Sooners, but the running game was held to 6 yards. The Cyclones are 3-3 and vastly improved under first-year head coach Paul Rhoads, but the team still ranks 9th in the Big 12 in total offense and 12th in total defense.
Iowa State won 24-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 5.39 over Mississippi State (-3) - The computer is 5-0 SU on MTSU games and it nailed the 1-point win at Maryland. The Bulldogs beat the Blue Raiders in Starkville 31-22 last year and are 3-0 all-time vs. MTSU.
Mississippi State won 27-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Oklahoma by 0.39 over Texas (-1.5) (at Dallas) - Oklahoma was expected to be a top contender for the NC until QB Sam Bradford went down in the first half of the BYU game. That game ended in a 1-point loss and the Sooners dropped another 1-point game at Miami. Bradford returned to the lineup last week in a 33-7 win over Baylor. Texas played sluggishly against lowly Colorado and may have lost were it not for several mistakes by the Buffs in the second half. Neither team has beaten anyone of note.
Texas won 16-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.