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10/6/09-10/10/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 31-11 SU (.738), 23-19 ATS (.548)
Last Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 4-2 ATS (.667)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 5-3 ATS (.625)

Tuesday, October 6
TROY (-3.5) by 5.95 over Middle Tennessee - The computer is 50-25 ATS with Troy over the last 8 seasons, topping all 120 teams. The Trojans have won 14 of their last 15 home games, and each of their last 7 home conference games by 10 points or more. Troy has outscored MTSU 76-24 in the last two meetings.
Troy won 31-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 10
Alabama (-4) by 5.87 over MISSISSIPPI - Alabama appears to be the class of the SEC. The Tide has won 17 consecutive regular season games, and 10 straight by 6 points or more. The last time they didn't win a game by more than 4 points was last year's 24-20 win over the Rebels. Alabama puts the conference's 2nd-ranked defense up against the 7th-ranked offense of Ole Miss.
Alabama won 22-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Arizona (-2.5) by 15.63 over WASHINGTON - Arizona leads the PAC-10 in rushing and the Huskies are next-to-last in stopping the run. Washington is 1st in passing offense, but the Wildcats are 5th in pass defense.
Washington won 36-33. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Fiu (-7) by 12.31 over WESTERN KENTUCKY - WKU has 1 win over an FBS program since beginning the transition to the FBS in 2007. The Hilltoppers own the nation's longest current losing streak at 12 straight, and have lost 17 consecutive games to FBS teams. FIU won last year's meeting 27-3.
FIU won 37-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SAN JOSE STATE (-1) by 10.93 over Idaho - The disparity between the line and the computer makes it simply too difficult to pass up. The Spartans aren't really even getting a homefield advantage from the oddsmakers, even though they have won 4 straight over the Vandals. The opening line of minus-1 for SJSU quickly jumped to between 3 and 4 points in favor of the Spartans.
Idaho won 29-25. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Michigan State (-4) by 6.74 over ILLINOIS - The computer is 3-1 ATS with MSU and 3-0 with Illinois. The Fightin' Illini have lost all 3 of their games against FBS tams by 28-30 points and have been outscored in those games 102-26.
Michigan State won 24-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

IOWA (-7) by 13.28 over Michigan - The Hawkeyes seem to get up for the big games and this is their first crack at the Wolverines since 2006. Michigan has won 3 straight in the series.
Iowa won 30-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

West Virginia (-10.5) by 13.77 over SYRACUSE - West Virginia's 2nd-ranked offense (Big East) faces the league's worst defense.
West Virginia won 34-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 27-7 SU (.794), 16-18 ATS (.471)
Last Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 3-3 ATS (.500)

Saturday, October 10
Tcu (-9.5) by 3.59 over AIR FORCE - The home team has won the last 3 meetings. Air Force ranks 2nd nationally in rushing offense, but TCU ranks 1st against the run. The Falcons are 1st in turnover margin with 17 gained against just 4 lost.
TCU won 20-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEMPLE (-13) by 10.06 over Ball State - Only 1 of Ball State's losses has been by more than 10 points and 3 of the setbacks have been by 7 points. Head coach Stan Parrish needs a win in the worst way.
Temple won 24-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-12) by 10.95 over Boston College - Boston College has won the last 3 regular season meetings, but then lost rematches with the Hokies in the ACC Championship game in each of the last two years. B.C. is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech won 48-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA (-6.5) by 4.59 over Indiana - This is the first time the Cavaliers have been favored all year. UVa has lost 4 straight home games, including 0-2 this season with setbacks to TCU and William & Mary (FCS). Indiana is 1-1 on the road this year, including a 3-point loss at Michigan two weeks ago. The computer is 3-0 ATS on Cavalier games this year.
Virginia won 47-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-13) by 4.71 over Kentucky - The computer is 3-1 ATS with Kentucky games this season after missing by 3 points on last week's game vs. Alabama. Except for victories over winless FAU and South Carolina State (FCS), every Gamecock game has been decided by 6 points or less.
South Carolina won 28-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WYOMING (-13) by 5.08 over New Mexico - The Cowboys' 3 wins have all been by 7 points or less over a weak list of teams - FCS member Weber State, a struggling UNLV, and a winless FAU. Wyoming and New Mexico are near the bottom of the Mountain West in all statistical categories. The Cowboys do rank 4th in rushing but only average a little over 140 per game. New Mexico has won the last two meetings by a  combined score of 44-3.
Wyoming won 37-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 15-24 SU (.385), 20-19 ATS (.513)
Last Week: 4-3 SU (.571), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)

Saturday, October 10
AKRON by 3.09 over Ohio (-4.5) - The home team has won the last 4 meetings, and 7 of the last 8. The computer is 3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS with the Zips. It's 4-1 SU, 3-1 ATS with the Bobcats.
Ohio won 19-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS

RICE by 3.21 over Navy (-14) - The Owls are 1 of the 8 remaining winless teams and are 109th in the Congrove Computer Rankings so this upset pick is a little suspect, to say the least. However, the computer is 4-1 SU with both teams.
Navy won 63-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

OREGON STATE by 5.54 over Stanford (-1.5) - The homestanding Beavers need a win to avoid near-elimination from the PAC-10 title chase after losing 37-32 at home to Arizona two weeks ago. They rebounded nicely with a big win at Arizona State last week, and have the nation's 12th-best run defense to counter the nation's 4th-leading rusher in Stanford's Toby Gerhart.
Oregon State won 38-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.