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10/5/10-10/9/10


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/2-9/6
Week 2: 9/9-9/11
Week 3: 9/16-9/18
Week 4: 9/23-9/25
Week 5: 9/30-10/2
Week 6: 10/5-10/9
Week 7: 10/13-10/16
Week 8: 10/21-10/23
Week 9: 10/26-10/30
Week 10: 11/2-11/6
Week 11: 11/9-11/13
Week 12: 11/16-11/20
Week 13: 11/23-11/27
Week 14: 12/2-12/4
Week 15: 12/11-12/11
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2010 Regular Season: 30-16 SU (.652), 18-28 ATS (.391)
This Week: 5-3 SU (.625), 3-5 ATS (.375)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, October 5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (-3) by 4.99 over Troy - MTSU leads the Sun Belt in total defense while Troy ranks 8trh in the 9-team league. The Trojans rank 1st in total offense, but the Blue Raiders rank 3rd without QB Dwight Dasher who has now served his suspension and will be back at quarterback. These are two of the computer's best-performing teams against the spread over the last 8 years as it has nailed over 63% of Troy games and nearly 57% of MTSU games.
Troy won 42-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, October 7
Nebraska (-10) by 14.82 over KANSAS STATE - No disrespect to Kansas State, but this should be a blowout by the 'Huskers who defeated Washington earlier this year 56-21 in Seattle. The computer is 4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS with Nebraska games this year.
Nebraska won 48-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 9
Alabama (-10) by 14.58 over SOUTH CAROLINA - The only true weakness that 'Bama has shown this year is against a strong passer - witness the first half vs. Arkansas - but South Carolina only ranks 5th in the SEC in that category. Arkansas' 357 passing yards skews the pass defense stats against the Tide, which otherwise have not allowed more than 202 in a game. Meanwhile, Alabama ranks 3rd in total offense while the Gamecocks rank 10th on "D".
South Carolina won 35-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WASHINGTON (-3) by 7.57 over Arizona State - The Sun Devils are 0-3 vs. FBS teams and now they have to hit the road to play a Washington team that handed USC its first loss of the season, and they did it in Los Angeles. The Huskies are only getting home field advantage from the oddsmakers.
Arizona State won 24-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

BOISE STATE (-36) by 41.26 over Toledo - Boise State has played two schools from non-BCS automatic qualifier conferences and has defeated them by a combined 109-6. They were favored by 47 last week at New Mexico State and won 59-0. Earlier this season at Wyoming, the Broncos surpassed the computer's 30-point spread in a 50-6 win. Toledo lost at home to Wyoming this past Saturday by 5.
Boise State won 57-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utah (-4) by 11.83 over IOWA STATE - Utah has played no one since opening with a 3-point overtime win at home over Pitt. Their last three contests have been against New Mexico (0-5), San Jose State (1-4) and UNLV (1-4). But the computer's spread for this game has risen since the preseason.
Utah won 68-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oregon (-34) by 37.60 over WASHINGTON STATE - Oregon has won the last three meetings by 49, 46 and 46. The Ducks rank 1st in the national in total offense and the Cougars rank 118th in total defense. Washington State lost at home to USC by 34.
Oregon won 43-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

STANFORD (-7) by 11.68 over Usc - The conference's No. 3 passing offense against the worst pass defense means 7 points shouldn't be that difficult.
Stanford won 37-35. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2010 Regular Season: 36-2 SU (.947), 16-22 ATS (.421)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 2-5 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Wednesday, October 6
UCF (-12.5) by 8.02 over Uab - A 1-point loss to FAU and a 3-point OT defeat at Tennessee is all that has kept UAB from a 3-1 start. The Blazers rank 3rd in the conference in total offense while UCF ranks 8th. The Golden Knights rank 1st defensively while the Blazers rank 7th. The computer is a combined 4-3 ATS with these teams in 2010.
UCF won 42-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Friday, October 8
Oklahoma State (-21) by 14.78 over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE - The computer is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with each of these teams.
Oklahoma State won 54-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 9
OHIO (-10) by 6.69 over Bowling Green - BGSU has played offensive juggernauts Troy, Tulsa and Michigan - the No. 10, 8 and 2 offenses in the country. As a result, the Falcons easily rank last in the conference in yards allowed per game. But Bowling Green's lone win is over Marshall while Ohio's is over winless Eastern Michigan. The computer is 3-2 ATS with BGSU and 2-2 with the Bobcats.
Ohio won 49-25. The computer won, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-24) by 12.40 over Central Michigan - The computer is 3-1 ATS with both schools. The Hokies' biggest win this year was by 22 over East Carolina and CMU's biggest loss was a surprising 14-point setback to Ball State this past weekend in which the Chippewas were minus-3 on turnovers.
Virginia Tech 45-21. The computer won SU, won ATS. (The computer does not recognize a push. See how picks are scored.)

WISCONSIN (-22) by 17.17 over Minnesota - The Badgers have a 13-point win over San Jose State (0-3 vs. FBS and 1-1 vs. FCS) and a 1-point win over Arizona State (0-3 vs. FBS and 2-0 vs. FCS). Look for Minnesota to use its passing attack to stay in the game. Adam Weber has 9 TD tosses and 4 INT's.
Wisconsin won 41-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UTEP (-9) by 3.83 over Rice - UTEP is 4-1 but has 1 win over a FCS school and 3 FBS victories vs. teams with a combined record of 1-13. This is the best team the Miners have faced since tackling Houston in week 2 of the season. Rice's previous five opponents are a combined 16-9.
UTEP won 44-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-27.5) by 17.80 over Unlv - There is nearly a 10-point discrepancy between the oddsmakers and the computer and the computer's spread has moved less than 1/3 of a point since the preseason. The computer is 3-2 ATS with the Rebels and 3-0 with the Mountaineers.
West Virginia won 49-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2010 Regular Season: 10-18 SU (.357), 13-15 ATS (.464)
This Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 2-3 ATS (.400)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 9
NORTH TEXAS by 1.12 over Arkansas State (-1) - The Red Wolves rank 2nd in the Sun Belt on offense, but last on defense. North Texas ranks 4th on offense and 2nd on defense. Riley Dodge, son of head coach Todd Dodge, began the season as the 3rd-string QB but has taken over as starter since the 1st- and 2nd-stringers went down with injuries that ended their seasons. With Riley at the helm, UNT has a win at FAU and a tight home loss to La.-Lafayette last weekend when a 4th-quarter rally fell short due to a blocked PAT with 45 seconds left in the game. The Mean Green was playing that game the day after 20-year old freshman walk-on receiver Josh Rake died from injuries suffered in an automobile accident.
Arkansas State won 24-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

BYU by 9.94 over San Diego State (-6) - I have a difficult time buying this pick as BYU has looked pathetic since an opening day win over Washington and is currently mired in a 4-game losing streak. Furthermore, the Aztecs walloped Utah State 41-7 the week before the Aggies beat the Cougars 31-16 at home. BYU was a 25.72-point computer favorite in this game in the preseason and has fallen all the way down to being a 9.94-point pick now.
BYU won 24-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

HOUSTON by 4.93 over Mississippi State (-5) - This game is a tough call. Houston QB's Case Keenum and Cotton Turner are out for the season, and Terrance Broadway's first game as the starter produced 0 TD passes and 1 pick, albeit in a 42-23 win over Tulane. The Cougars have had an extra week to prep Broadway to face a Bulldog defense that has allowed over 17 points just once (LSU) in five games.
Mississippi State won 47-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Utah State by 1.66 over LOUISIANA TECH (-2.5) - Two teams near the bottom of the WAC face-off in Ruston, Louisiana. The 2-3 Aggies (0-1, WAC) meet the 1-4 Bulldogs (0-1, WAC) with Utah State coming off a huge 15-point rivalry win at home over BYU, and Louisiana Tech coming off a 20-point loss at Hawaii. The computer is just 1-3 ATS with both teams, but is a combined 9-1 straight up.
Louisiana Tech won 24-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Pitt by 2.95 over NOTRE DAME (-8) - Notre Dame is just 2-3 after snapping a 3-game losing streak with a road win at Boston College (2-2). Pitt has been lethargic on offense, but managed a season-high 44 points last weekend at home against FIU.
Notre Dame won 23-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.