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9/30/08-10/04/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
PAST RECORDS:
2008 Regular Season: 32-9 SU (.780), 20-21 ATS (.488)
Last Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 6-1 ATS (.857)

Friday, October 3rd
Cincinnati (-3.5) by 13.36 over MARSHALL - The Herd is much improved as it enters this game with a 3-2 record overall, 2-0 in the MAC East. But Marshall is just 1-2 in non-conference play where its only win is against FCS Illinois State. In two previous games against teams from the "big 6" conferences - ACC, Big East. Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-10 and SEC - Marshall was walloped 51-14 by Wisconsin and 27-3 by West Virginia. However, CIncinnati is hurting at QB as Tony Pike suffered a broken left forearm in last Saturday's 17-15 win at Akron and is out for at least two games. Dustin Grutza fractured his right fibula in the 4th quarter of the Oklahoma game on September 6 and is out indefinitely. Redshirt freshman Zach Collaros replaced Pike on Saturday. Redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson is the other Cincy option at QB. While the QB position should never be underestimated, Cincinnati's overall talent level should be worth the 3-1/2 and then some.
Cincinnati won 33-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 4th
NOTE: The computer either has the Big 12 figured out, or it has a corrupted hard drive. Each of the next four games in this category are Big 12 conference matches. The computer is 44-4 in picking the winner of Big 12 games this year, but is just 19-19 ATS.

Texas (-13.5) by 20.10 over COLORADO - Texas has beaten three opponents - FAU, Rice and Arkansas - by the identical score of 52-10. Of some concern here should be the fact that Texas' lone road trip resulted in its closest win over a not-too-good opponent when the Longhorns beat UTEP 42-13.
Texas won 38-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Kansas (-13) by 22.80 over IOWA STATE - The Cyclones should not pose a threat to Todd Reesing and Co. Kansas won 42-10 at Ames in 2006, and 45-7 last year in Lawrence.
Kansas won 35-33. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Texas Tech (-7) by 10.96 over KANSAS STATE - If Texas Tech is worthy of its high ranking, a 7-point win in Manhattan should be a piece of cake. The Wildcats are 3-1 against a terribly weak lineup of North Texas, Montana State (FCS), Louisville and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Texas Tech won 58-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Missouri (-11) by 15.39 over NEBRASKA - Virginia Tech would have blown Nebraska out last Saturday if the offense had run more efficiently.The Hokies repeatedly burned Nebraska's secondary. One can only imagine the pyrotechnics that will be on display when Chase Daniel starts lighting up that defensive backfield. The concern is that the Tigers, ranked 3rd in the CCR Top 120, have lost 15 straight games in Lincoln where they last won in 1978.
Missouri won 52-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4) by 5.25 over Ohio - The Bobcats are 1-4 and still looking for their first win over a FBS team. Western Michigan has won four straight after opening the season with a 47-24 loss at Nebraska. The 4-1 record is deceptive to a degree as one win came against FCS member Tennessee Tech and the other three were against Northern Illinois, Idaho and Temple. Additionally, the wins over the Huskies and Owls were by four points or less. The computer is 4-0 ATS on Ohio games this season.
Western Michigan won 41-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TULSA (-14) by 17.27 over Rice - Tulsa has the offense to match Rice. It also has the defense to stop Rice enough times to win by more than 14 points. The only common opponent, thus far, is North Texas and each team stomped the not-so-Mean Green. The Owls won at home 77-20, and the Golden Hurricane won 56-26 on the road.
Tulsa won 63-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 28-8 SU (.778), 21-15 ATS (.583)
Last Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)
This Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 4-4 ATS (.500)

Wednesday, October 1st
BOISE STATE (-22) by 21.41 over Louisiana Tech - Boise State has won the last two home games against the Bulldogs by a 55-14 count. But this year's La. Tech is no slouch team and already owns a victory over the SEC's Mississippi State. The Broncos won 45-31 in Ruston last year.
Boise State won 38-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, October 2nd
UTAH (-12.5) by 1.23 over Oregon State - Utah is solid, but the computer obviously thinks 12-1/2 is too generous. I know Oregon State stunk like week-old Beaver road kill in its only other non-conference road trip, a 45-13 loss at Penn State, but I seem to recall a win over USC just last week.
Utah won 31-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 27th
NOTE: What do you know? Another Big 12 matchup leads off this category.

Oklahoma (-27.5) by 26.04 over BAYLOR - It's a lot of points to get on the road, even for Oklahoma. Baylor has an offense under Art Briles and is off to a 2-2 start. The Bears lost at undefeated UConn by just three points, 31-28.
Oklahoma won 49-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USC (-16.5) by 9.12 over Oregon - The Trojans destroyed Virginia and Ohio State before losing at Oregon State last week. The experts apparently expect USC to magically return to domination. The Ducks lost 35-10 in Los Angeles in 2006, but won 24-17 at home last year.
USC won 44-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

ALABAMA (-16.5) by 7.60 over Kentucky - The Wildcats have only allowed 22 points all season. It's tough to get blown out by more than 16 points if you keep the opponent's offense in check.
Alabama won 17-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-14) by 11.97 over Duke - David Cutcliffe has brought a mental toughness to Duke's program. The Blue Devils have already defeated a Paul Johnson-type offense when they downed Navy 41-31, Johnson's old team, on September 13.
Georgia Tech won 27-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FRESNO STATE (-22.5) by 13.30 over Hawaii - Fresno State's problem is defense and the inane ability to play to the opponent's level. Their 2008 results, thus far, don't provide any evidence that the Bulldogs are capable of a blowout win.
Hawaii won 32-29 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-28) by 17.66 over Western Kentucky - Virginia Tech is the computer's best team ATS since 2001 with a 66.3 winning percentage.
Virginia Tech won 27-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 15-17 SU (.469), 17-15 ATS (.531)
Last Week: 4-5 SU (.444), 4-5 ATS (.444)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 4-2 ATS (.667))

Tuesday, September 30th
Fau by 3.05 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE (-3) - FAU will be glad to get back to Sun Belt play after going 0-3 against Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota while being outscored 106-13. The computer's preseason forecast had the Owls going 10-2 and winning the Sun Belt. They can still win the conference and go 9-3.
Middle Tennessee won 14-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 4th
Connecticut by 4.64 over NORTH CAROLINA (-7) - UNC was the oddsmakers' pick over Virginia Tech and lost. The Tar Heels were the oddsmakers' underdog at Miami and won. The computer was right on both games in its preseason forecast, and that same forecast projected North Carolina to lose this game to the Huskies.
North Carolina won 38-12. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Florida State by 6.88 over MIAMI, FLA. (-2.5) - It's still impossible to say that we have learned anything definitive about these two teams which makes this rivalry match all the more interesting. The computer favorite has lost the last five meetings.
Florida State won 41-39. The computer won SU, won ATS.

LOUISIANA-MONROE by 8.13 over Louisiana-Lafayette (-1.5) - UL-Monroe has won five of the last six meetings, including the last two. However, the Ragin' Cajuns won the last time the game was played in Monroe.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 44-35. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Temple by 1.13 over MIAMI, OHIO (-7) - As I said last week... if it weren't for bad luck, Temple would have no luck at all. The Owls lost in overtime to UConn, fell the following week on a Hail Mary pass to Buffalo, and lost 7-3 at home last to Western Michigan. They have lost three games by 4 points or less.
Temple won 28-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

South Carolina by 3.30 over MISSISSIPPI (-2.5) - Personally, I'd take the Rebels who must be feeling confident after the upset win at Florida. South Carolina has won two straight home games by pathetic margins over teams they should have manhandled. The Gamecocks shook off Wofford (FCS) 23-13, then beat UAB 26-13. The computer's preseason forecast favored South Carolina in this game by over 10 points, and that margin has dropped to 3.30.
South Carolina won 31-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.