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9/25/08-9/27/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
PAST RECORDS:
2008 Regular Season: 25-9 SU (.735), 14-20 ATS (.412)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Thursday, September 25th
TULANE (-17) by 17.80 over Smu - Yes. SMU is that bad. The Mustangs have come no closer than 29 points in any of their previous three games against FBS schools.
Tulane won 34-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 27th
Cincinnati (-10.5) by 17.04 over AKRON - Akron is decent, but the Bearcats should have more than enough weapons to come close to the computer's mark of 17 points.
Cincinnati won 17-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

BALL STATE (-17) by 19.02 over Kent State -
Receiver Dante Love suffered a career-ending spinal cord injury in the win over Indiana. Love is 2nd in the nation in receiving yards. Kent State is 1-3 and every loss has been by at least 17 points. The Cardinals are 4-0 with three wins by at least 17 points, and a 12-point home win over Navy.
Ball State won 41-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

HAWAII (-3) by 12.58 over San Jose State - The Warriors probably have a better home field advantage than other teams, due to the long flight across the Pacific.
San Jose State won 20-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Usf (-8) by 21.26 over N.C. STATE -
The disparity in the lines is too large to pass up. The question is whether or not USF can play better on the road this week than it did last Saturday at FIU in a 17-9 win.
USF won 41-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oregon (-20) by 22.38 over WASHINGTON STATE -Cougar quarterback Gary Rogers suffered a career-ending neck injury in Saturday's win over FCS member Portland State. Kevin Lopina started at QB but was knocked out of the game with a bruised right shoulder. Redshirt freshman Marshall Lobbestael may start this game after finishing 9-of-12 for 149 yards and 2 TD's. Washington State has lost every game it has played against a FBS school by at least 28 points, including a 66-3 home loss to California.
Oregon won 63-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Pitt (-15) by 18.44 over SYRACUSE - Yes, Syracuse is that bad. The Orange lost at home to Akron by 14 points.
Pitt won 34-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Ucf (-5) by 9.71 over UTEP -
UCF won the only meeting between these schools, 36-20, last season.
UTEP won 58-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 21-7 SU (.750), 17-11 ATS (.607)
Last Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)

Thursday, September 25th
Usc (-24) by 11.72 over OREGON STATE - The Beavers are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. 24 is a lot of points for a conference road game. USC lost 33-31 at Oregon State in 2006 after the Beavers had already lost to Boise State, California and Washington State. Oregon State went on to win 8 of its last 9 games that year, including a 39-38 triumph over Missouri in the Sun Bowl while beating seven teams with records of .500 or better.
Oregon State won 27-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 27th
IOWA (-8) by 7.12 over Northwestern - Iowa's last two games have resulted in a 17-5 win over Iowa State and a 21-20 loss at Pitt. Northwestern enters at 4-0 with wins over Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois (FCS) and Ohio. The Hawkeyes won 28-17 in Evanston last year to halt a 2-game losing streak to the Wildcats.
Northwstern won 22-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

KANSAS STATE (-21) by 12.97 over Louisiana-Lafayette - The Ragin' Cajuns only fell by 3 at Illinois. These teams have not met since 2004 when the Wildcats won 40-20. However, UL-L has not fared well against other Big 12 teams in recent history with losses to Texas A&M in 2006 (51-7), and Texas in 2005 (60-3).
Kansas State won 45-37. The compute won SU, won ATS.

KENTUCKY (-22) by 18.16 over Western Kentucky -
Other than a 34-point loss at Alabama, WKU has played decently in compiling a 2-2 record, but its wins have come against FCS competition. Kentucky struggled in its last outing, a 20-14 home win over Middle Tennessee.
Kentucky won 41-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-17) by 0.90 over Troy -
The Trojans beat Oklahoma State 41-23 in Troy last year, and they only lost 28-10 at Ohio State.
Oklahoma State won 55-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-25) by 20.37 over Uab - The Gamecocks beat FCS member Wofford by 10 last week and rank 78th in total offense.  The Blazers rank 41st.  However, UAB will have to be better on defense where it ranks 117th nationally to South Carolina's 9th-place ranking.
South Carolina won 26-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 12-14 SU (.462), 13-13 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 3-3 ATS (.500)
This Week: 4-5 SU (.444), 4-5 ATS (.444)

Friday, September 26th
Connecticut by 1.51 over LOUISVILLE (-3.5) - The Huskies are 4-0 and the defending Big East co-champions, but they still are not getting any respect from oddsmakers or pollsters. They are No. 29 in the latest Coaches' Poll, and No. 31 in the AP Poll.  The CCR Top 120, meanwhile, has them ranked 23rd while Louisville is No. 45. By all definitions, a Louisville win would have to be considered an upset. That's not to say that the Cardinals won't win, but picking UConn seems pretty logical.
Connecticut won 26-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 27th
Arkansas State by 2.31 over MEMPHIS (-1) - When I first see the oddsmakers spreads, some just really surprise me. Arkansas State is 3-1 and its only loss was by 3 points at home to Southern Miss. Memphis is 1-3 with its only win coming against FCS member Nicholls State. Arkansas State has won the last two meetings, including a 26-23 victory at Memphis in 2006. Those facts alone point to the Red Wolves as the sensible favorite.
Memphis won 29-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Virginia by 6.67 over DUKE (-7) - You know that Virginia (1-2) has been nothing short of horrendous when it is favored to lose to Duke. Interestingly, the Cavaliers are exactly where the computer expected them to be at this point. Duke picked up a surprising win over Navy to make it 2-1 when it was projected to be 1-2 at this point, but Navy hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire and the Blue Devils did lose at home to Northwestern. If Virginia loses this game, Al Groh's job should be in serious jeopardy.
Duke won 31-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

EASTERN MICHIGAN by 0.12 over Northern Illinois (-6.5) - EMU has lost nearly 5 power points off its preseason rating while NIU has added about 3 points. The only win for both schools came against FCS teams.
Northern Illinois won 37-0. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Virginia Tech by 2.56 over NEBRASKA (-7) - These teams have never met in the regular season. Nebraska is on its third head coach (Frank Solich, Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini) since Tom Osborne's team beat the Hokies in the 1996 Orange Bowl. At that point in history, Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer was still a relative newcomer next to Osborne. This is Beamer's chance to show if experience matters.
Virginia Tech won 35-30. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Nevada by 1.22 over UNLV (-4) - UNLV is 3-1 vs. the computer's preseason prediction of 2-2. Nevada is exactly where the computer said it would be at 1-2 with losses to Texas Tech and Missouri. The Wolf Pack was favored by 5.99 in the preseason, and has taken the last three meetings.
Nevada won 49-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Purdue by 4.46 over NOTRE DAME (-2) - The Boilermakers have won three of the last five meetings, including a 41-16 rout in South Bend in 2004.
Notre Dame won 38-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Stanford by 1.52 over WASHINGTON (-3.5) - Stanford is 2-2 while Washington is 0-3. Ty Willingham needs a win in the worst way. The Cardinal won 20-3 at Washington in 2006. The Huskies won 27-9 at Stanford last year.
Stanford won 35-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEMPLE by 2.34 over Western Michigan (-3.5) - If it weren't for bad luck, Temple would have no luck at all. The Owls lost in overtime to UConn, and fell the following week on a Hail Mary pass to Buffalo. The records seem to favor the 3-1 Broncos over the 1-3 Owls, but Temple has played the tougher schedule.
Western Michigan won 7-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.