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9/23/10-9/25/10


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/2-9/6
Week 2: 9/9-9/11
Week 3: 9/16-9/18
Week 4: 9/23-9/25
Week 5: 9/30-10/2
Week 6: 10/5-10/9
Week 7: 10/13-10/16
Week 8: 10/21-10/23
Week 9: 10/26-10/30
Week 10: 11/2-11/6
Week 11: 11/9-11/13
Week 12: 11/16-11/20
Week 13: 11/23-11/27
Week 14: 12/2-12/4
Week 15: 12/11-12/11
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2010 Regular Season: 23-9 SU (.719), 15-17 ATS (.469)
This Week: 10-3 SU (.769), 7-6 ATS (.538)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 23
PITT (-1) by 1.18 over Miami (Fla.) - After Pitt opened as a 1-point favorite, the line moved quickly to Miami's favor and was at 3-1/2 on Tuesday night. These teams meet for the first time since 2003 with Miami holding a six game winning streak in the series and a dominating 14-1 edge in the last 15 meetings. Pitt has become fairly adept at protecting its home turf, going 9-1 in its last 10 games at Heinz Field. The computer is 69-16 in picking the winner of 'Canes games over the last 8 years, and it's 2-0 with both teams this year.
Miami won 31-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 25
INDIANA (-15) by 16.48 over Akron - The Zips have lost to Syracuse at home by 22, at Kentucky by 37, and at home in OT to FCS member Gardner-Webb. The computer's line for the Hoosiers in this game has jumped 5.90 points since the preseason.
Indiana won 35-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS (we don't recognize tie picks).

Alabama (-4) by 7.95 over ARKANSAS - 'Bama has taken the last two meetings by an average of 31-1/2 points, including a 49-14 roll in the last meeting in Fayetteville.
Alabama won 24-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS (we don't recognize tie picks).

Oregon (-10) by 23.46 over ARIZONA STATE - 189-13. That's Oregon's cumulative score in its first three games this year. You can discount New Mexico and Portland State, but the 48-13 win at Tennessee was pretty impressive.
Oregon won 42-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

AUBURN (-1) by 2.34 over South Carolina - The Tigers are getting just a single point at home? The Gamecocks are 0-4 since their only win the series in 1933, and 0-2 at Auburn. South Carolina has dropped five straight SEC road games and is 3-9 in conference road games over the last three years.
Auburn won 35-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

North Carolina (-1) by 5.16 over RUTGERS - These are the computer's 8th and 9th-best teams against the spread over the last 8 years. The visitor has won both recent meetings - 2006 and 2008.
North Carolina won 17-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Idaho (-7) by 12.87 over COLORADO STATE - The Rams have been outscored 106-19 in games against Colorado, Nevada and Miami (Ohio). Throw out a good Nevada team, and CSU has still been outscored a combined 55-13. The wild card here is that this is Colorado State's home opener.
Colorado State won 36-34. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Georgia (-3.5) by 4.94 over MISSISSIPPI STATE - The line has flipped significantly toward to Mississippi State in this battle of the SEC Bulldogs, despite the fact that Georgia has won 9 straight in the series since losing in Jackson in 1974 and hasn't lost in Starkville since 1951.
Mississippi State won 24-12. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

HOUSTON (-20) by 27.05 over Tulane - Tulane ranks 111th in total offense. Houston has won the last six meetings by no fewer than 21 points and as many as 38. Even though starting QB Case Keenum and backup QB Cotton Turner are out, the Cougars still have Terrance Broadway who was 5-of-8 for 84 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT's against UCLA in relief of the first two QB's after they were both injured and lost for the season.
Houston won 42-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LSU (-5) by 6.61 over West Virginia - LSU has won 28 straight nonconference home games with a winning margin of at least 8 points in the last 16. The Tigers have won 30 straight nonconference games overall since losing at Virginia Tech in 2002. The Mountaineers have won just 4 of their last 10 games road games and 5 of their last 12 away from Morgantown.
LSU won 20-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UNLV (-10) by 17.37 over New Mexico - The Lobos have been outscored 180-31 in their first three game, allowing at least 52 points in each. As the No. 120 team (out of 120) in the Congrove Computer Rankings, New Mexico ranks last in the nation in total defense and 114th in total offense. UNLV is the No. 107 team in the CCR Top 120 and still has a more than 17-point advantage - that's how bad New Mexico is. The Rebels won 34-17 in Albuquerque last year. The computer is a combined 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS with these teams in 2010.
UNLV won 45-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Stanford (-1) by 10.53 over NOTRE DAME - The Cardinal won 45-38 last year to end a 7-game overall losing streak. Now, it's time to end a 7-game losing streak in South Bend. Notre Dame ranks 8th in passing offense, but Stanford ranks 1st in pass defense and 5th in total defense. The Cardinal ranks 14th in rushing offense while the Irish rank 99th in run defense.
Stanford won 37-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UTAH (-29) by 32.79 over San Jose State - San Jose State ranks 116th on offense and 101st in defense.
Utah won 56-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.




HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2010 Regular Season: 24-1 SU (.960), 12-13 ATS (.480)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 5-2 ATS (.714)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 25
Baylor (-10) by 1.01 over RICE - The computer is 18-0 SU and 12-4 ATS with Big 12 South teams this year.
Baylor won 30-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MICHIGAN (-20) by 6.54 over Bowling Green - Michigan ranks 102nd in passing defense and BGSU ranks 29th in passing offense.
Michigan won 65-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma (-13) by 5.95 over CINCINNATI (at Paul Brown Stadium) - The Sooners were just 1-3 at opponents' venues last year and this is their first foray away from Norman in 2010. The Bearcats have won 13 straight at home.
Oklahoma won 31-29. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MARYLAND (-14.5) by 10.28 over Fiu - The Golden Panthers have lost by 5 at home to Rutgers and by 7 on the road to Texas A&M. FIU ranks 28th in total defense and 5th in pass defense. The Terps rank 109th in total offense.
Maryland won 42-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PENN STATE (-15) by 9.67 over Temple - You either have to have guts, or a major brain-lock to take this pick, but the computer is 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS with the Owls. Temple has not defeated Penn State in its last 34 tries, making this the current most-lopsided series in major college football. The last four games were major routs with the Nittany Lions winning by a cumulative score of 154-9. Temple has lost by 15 points or less nine times since a 1950 tie, including a 23-10 defeat in 2003.
Penn State won 22-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PURDUE (-11) by 3.18 over Toledo - Toledo is 2-1 despite ranking dead last in total offense. The Rockets have thrived on defense with the nation's 6th-best turnover margin at plus-5. The Boilermakers survived Ball State last week 24-13.
Toledo won 31-20. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

TENNESSEE (-14) by 4.53 over Uab - The computer is a combined 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with these teams in 2010. The Vols beat the Blazers 35-3 in 2008, but just 17-10 in 2005. Tennessee has been outscored 79-30 in losses to Oregon and Florida.
Tennessee won 32-29 in 2 OT's. The computer won SU, won ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2010 Regular Season: 6-10 SU (.375), 8-8 ATS (.500)
This Week: 2-4 SU (.333), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 25
Virginia Tech by 8.07 over BOSTON COLLEGE (-2.5) - The Hokies have moved from a 2-1/2-point underdog at the open to a 4 to 4-1/2-point favorite. The Eagles have won the last two home meetings with Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech won 19-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

BYU by 1.46 over Nevada (-2.5) - These teams traded home field victories in 2001 and 2002 when both were members of the WAC. BYU's 1.46-point computer advantage is a significant drop from the preseason projection of a 9.17-point win. The computer is a combined 3-3 SU, 2-3 ATS with these teams in 2010.
Nevada won 27-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Central Michigan by 2.85 over NORTHWESTERN (-7.5) - Given the frequency with which Big Ten teams play MAC teams, it's surprising that this is the first time the Wildcats and Chippewas have met on the gridiron. Central Michigan is 3-4 vs. Big Ten member Michigan State since 1991 (every meeting at East Lansing), but has had no success against other members of the league during that same period (0-13).
Northwestern won 30-25. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Fresno State by 4.46 over MISSISSIPPI (-3) Ole Miss already has home losses to FCS member Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. The Rebels were a 3.41-point preseason computer favorite which means there has been a 7.87 swing in power points to Fresno State's favor since the season began.
Mississippi won 55-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Ucf by 2.75 over KANSAS STATE (-7) - This would be a certifiable upset, to be sure, but Kansas State ranks just 47th on offense and 67th on defense after playing UCLA, Missouri State (FCS) and Iowa State.
Kansas State won 17-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Middle Tennessee by 5.20 over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-1) - MTSU gets Dwight Dasher back - next week. This is the last game of a 4-game suspension for Dasher. The Blue Raiders' 1-2 start can be largely attributed to a minus-8 turnover margin that includes a passing game which has produced 5 INT's and just 2 TD's.
Middle Tennessee won 34-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.




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