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9/22/11-9/24/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 25-5 SU (.833), 18-12 ATS (.600)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 4-4 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 24
ARIZONA STATE (-1.5) by 3.13 over Usc - The Trojans hit the road for the first time this season to face a hungry Arizona State team that will be anxious to rebound from a 17-14 road loss to Illinois last week - a loss that was predicted by the computer.
Arizona State won 43-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UTAH STATE (-7) by 12.74 over Colorado State - As we saw in its 4-point loss at Auburn, Utah State is a good WAC team and the computer is a combined 3-0 ATS with both teams.
Colorado State won 35-34 in double-overtime. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Georgia (-6.5) by 7.50 over MISSISSIPPI - The Rebels simply don't have enough offense (ranked #115 of 120 FBS schools) to keep pace with the Bulldogs. Georgia owns the series 30-12-1 and has won the last 8 in-a-row.
Georgia won 27-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-4.5) by 5.33 over North Carolina - The Yellow Jackets were just a 0.12-point computer favorite in the preseason and have ballooned to a 5.33-point projected winner. Georgia Tech has won 5 of the last 6 meetings and hasn't lost to the Tar Heels at home since 1997 when UNC went 11-1.
Georgia Tech won 35-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Smu (-21.5) by 31.40 over MEMPHIS - The computer is a combined 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS with these schools when they face FBS teams. The Tigers are currently an underdog by more than 17 points in every remaining game on their schedule. Memphis was outscored by Mississippi State and Arkansas State by a combined 106-17 in their two games vs. FBS teams.
SMU won 42-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TROY (-9) by 14.22 over Middle Tennessee - The Trojans have won each of the last 4 meetings by at least 14 points, and 3 of the last 4 home meetings by at least 20.
Troy won 38-35. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Notre Dame (-3.5) by 6.48 over PITTSBURGH - The computer has been right on every Pitt game, thus far, and it likes the Irish by almost twice as many points now in this game than it did in the preseason.
Notre Dame won 15-12. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OREGON STATE (-1.5) by 2.63 over Ucla - By Saturday, the Beavers will have had two weeks to fix their problems after opening the season with consecutive losses to Sacramento State (29-28) and Wisconsin (35-0). The computer is 3-0 SU and ATS with the Bruins, and it's 1-0 SU and ATS with Oregon State when it plays FBS schools.
UCLA won 27-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 19-2 SU (.905), 7-14 ATS (.333)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 2-4 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 24
DUKE (-10) by 1.16 over Tulane - The Blue Devils have gone from a nearly 5-point preseason computer favorite in this game to la mere 1.16-point choice. Duke opened with a loss to FCS member Richmond, then got blown out at home by Stanford before turning in a 1-point upset win at Boston College last week. Tulane won a shootout with FCS member SE Louisiana, then got bombed by Tulsa before scoring a surprising 39-point victory over UAB last week.
Duke won 48-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

IOWA (-21.5) by 6.24 over Louisiana-Monroe - The disparity of over 15 points between the line and the computer's projection is just too much to pass up. The computer is 5-1 SU and 3-1 ATS with these teams. UL-M may not be a scary opponent, but Iowa hasn't scared anyone but themselves's in its first 3 games which produced a win over an FCS school, an upset loss to Iowa State in triple-OT and a school history-making comeback to beat Pitt by 4.
Iowa won 45-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MIAMI, FLA. (-11.5) by 3.40 over Kansas State - It's the first meeting between the two teams and the line seems to reflect a new-found infatuation with the 'Canes after their 24-6 win over Ohio State last week. This game should be in the 1 TD range.
Kansas State won 28-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

MARYLAND (-10) by 3.12 over Temple - A week after it nearly beat Penn State for the first time since 1941, Temple finds itself as a disrespected 10-point underdog to Maryland. These teams haven't played since 2005 and the Owls are 0-6 all-time against Maryland. The computer is 12-3 SU and 9-4 ATS with Temple games since the start of last season.
Temple won 38-7. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

MICHIGAN (-9.5) by 6.88 over San Diego State - The undefeated Aztecs and head coach Rocky Long bring RB Ronnie Hillman (2nd nationally in rushing) and QB Ryan Lindley (7 TD's, 1 INT) to the Big House to face their old boss and head coach, Brady Hoke. The computer is 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS with the SDSU. It's 2-1 SU and ATS with the Wolverines.
Michigan won 28-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

RUTGERS (-7.5) by 3.13 over Ohio - Ohio enters this game undefeated after outscoring New Mexico State, Gardner-Webb and Marshall by a cumulative 118-34. Rutgers was idle this past week after losing by 2 at UNC and its only win came against FCS member North Carolina Central. Don't be shocked if Frank Solich's Bobcats take home a win from The State University of New Jersey.
Rutgers won 38-26. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 7-12 SU (.375), 10-9 ATS (.526)
This Week: 1-3 SU (.000), 2-2 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, September 23
Ucf by 1.08 over BYU (-4) - Both teams are licking their wounds after last week's results saw the Golden Knights fall 17-10 at upstart FIU, and BYU get crushed at home by arch-rival Utah 54-10. It's the first meeting between these teams.
BYU won 24-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 24
IDAHO by 3.07 over Fresno State (-7) - Each school defeated an FCS team for its only win of the season, thus far. The computer's preseason forecast had Idaho going 8-4 and Fresno State finishing 6-7. However, the computer is a combined 1-3 ATS with these teams in 2011.
Fresno State won 48-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Southern Miss by 1.62 over VIRGINIA (-1.5) - The only other meeting of these teams took place two years ago in Hattiesburg with VIrginia scratching out a 37-34 win.
Southern Miss won 30-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Toledo by 6.66 over SYRACUSE (-3.5) - The Orange are 2-0 all-time vs. Toledo, winning both games by healthy margins, but the schools haven't met since 2003.
Syracuse won 33-30 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.



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