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9/20/07-9/22/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 4-3 ATS (.571)

Saturday, September 22nd
BYU (-10.5) 18.89 over Air Force -
BYU has won the last three meetings by 19, 21 and 17 points. The Cougars are 10-2 all-time at home over the Falcons with the only losses coming in 2003 and 1982. BYU's 4th-ranked passing offense goes against Air Force's 54th-ranked pass defense. The Falcons' 10th-ranked rushing offense will have to contend with the Cougars' 21st-ranked rushing defense.
BYU own 31-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7) 9.92 over Memphis - Texas likely didn't expect UCF to be as pumped as they were for last Saturday's inaugural game at the new on-campus facility of the Golden Knights. And no one anticipated that the Golden Knights were capable of pulling off an upset over the Longhorns, which they nearly did. But everyone seems to be selling UCF short. look, it's a 7-point home spread against a team that has won just 1 of its last 12 games against FBS teams. 'nuff said.
Central Florida won 56-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Georgia Tech (-3) 10.60 over VIRGINIA - I generally try to stay away from picking road teams to cover a spread, and I have plenty of reason to stay away from this pick. After all, Georgia Tech has not won in Charlottesville since 1990, losing seven straight games at Scott Stadium. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets' win over Notre Dame means nothing now, and the home loss last week to Boston College has significant importance. So, if you are inclined to believe that UVa is any good at all, don't take your chances here. But keep in mind that UVa's only wins have come against the worst teams in the ACC - Duke (24-13) and UNC (22-20) - and neither victory was impressive.
Virginia won 28-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WISCONSIN (-8) 13.17 over Iowa - Iowa lost to Iowa State, which lost to Northern Iowa. At this point, I would equate the Hawkeyes with Washington State whom the Badgers defeated 42-21 at home in the opener.
Wisconsin won 17-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LSU (-16) 18.72 over South Carolina - LSU has won every game they've played by 40+ points and Virginia Tech is the only team that has even scored on them. It has nothing to do with the caliber of its' competition - the Tigers are just that good.
LSU won 28-16. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WAKE FOREST (-3) 7.52 over Maryland - The Demon Deacons must win to stay in the hunt for the ACC's Atlantic Division title as they already have a loss at division-leader Boston College. This is Maryland's ACC opener. Wake broke a seven-game losing streak to the Terrapins last year with a 38-24 victory in College Park.
Wake Forest won 31-24 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oregon (-17) 19.92 over STANFORD - The Ducks have won all three of their games - two at home, one away - by at least 21 points. That makes it nearly impossible to skip this game. Oregon has taken five straight from the Cardinal,a nd four of those victories have been by at least 24 points.
Oregon won 55-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 3-3 ATS (.500)

I'm counting on some pretty bad teams to come through this week as I take Temple, Miami (Ohio), Syracuse and Rice.

Friday, September 21st
Oklahoma (-22) 19.87 over TULSA -
Oklahoma's first game outside of Norman isn't very far away. This state rivalry has been staged just three times this decade and the Sooners have won all three. Tulsa's last win in the series came during Oklahoma's dismal 3-8 season in 1996. This is only the fourth time the teams have met in Tulsa since 1942. Oklahoma is ranked 3rd in total offense, and Tulsa is ranked 4th. However, the Sooners rank 2nd in total defense while Tulsa ranks 108th.
Oklahoma won 62-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 22nd
ARKANSAS (-7) 1.03 over Kentucky
- The last time these teams got together in 2003, they played 7 overtimes with Arkansas ultimately prevailing 71-63. It matched the longest game in NCAA history, a 58-56 Arkansas win in 7 overtimes over Mississippi in 2001. The Razorbacks also played a 6-overtime game at Tennessee in 2002, which they lost 41-38. The final score of this game will likely be similar to last week's Arkansas-Alabama ('Bama won 41-38) and Louisville-Kentucky (the Cats won 40-34) contests. Both schools could badly use an SEC win. The Razorbacks have dropped three consecutive conference games. The Wildcats are just 2-10 in their last 12 SEC road games and the wins have come at Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
Kentucky won 42-29. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

BOWLING GREEN (-21) 15.98 over Temple - The Owls have lost six straight, 26 of their last 27, 32 of their last 34, and 45 of their last 48. However, the last team Temple defeated was Bowling Green when it did the trick in Philadelphia last season by the score of 28-14. What made that game even more surprising is that the Falcons had scored 70 points against the Owls in back-to-back wins in 2004 and 2005. Last week, Temple appeared to have scored the potential game-winning touchdown on a 4th-down pass with 40 seconds left. However, the play was ruled incomplete on the field and the call was not overturned on replay. As a result, UConn handed Temple its 6th straight loss, 22-17.
Bowling Green won 48-35. the computer won SU, won ATS.

COLORADO (-14) 5.76 over Miami (Ohio) - The Buffaloes haven't shown that they have enough offense to beat anyone by 14 points. Colorado has been outscored 49-20 in back-to-back losses to Arizona State (33-14) and Florida State (16-6).
Colorado won 42-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LOUISVILLE (-37) 35.92 over Syracuse - Syracuse has only scored 32 points all year, but the Orange has still managed to stay within 35 points on all three losses. The Cardinal defense has allowed 41 points per game in its last two outings against MTSU and Kentucky. The two previous Big East conference games between these foes have resulted in Louisville victories by 15 points and 24 points.
Syracuse won 38-35. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

TEXAS (-39) 32.37 over Rice - As bad as Rice is, it hasn't lost to anyone by more than 35 and that was against Texas Tech's juggernaut offense. Meanwhile, the Longhorns haven't beaten anyone by more than 21.
Texas won 58-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
This Week: 5-5 SU (.500), 5-5 ATS (.500)

Thursday, September 20
Texas A&M 1.23 over MIAMI (-2.5) - Miami didn't fare well in its last game against a Big 12 opponent, losing 51-13 two weeks ago at Oklahoma. This is only the fourth time that Miami has played a school from the Big 12 since that conference formed in 1996. All four games have been played since 2001 and all four have been against different schools - Nebraska (2001 Rose Bowl), Colorado (2005), Oklahoma (2007) and Texas A&M (2007). Miami is 2-1 against the Big 12 (1-0 at home, 1-0 at neutral sites, 0-1 on the road).
Miami won 31-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 22nd
AKRON 2.97 over Kent State (-3) -
A big battle for supremacy among MAC East teams in the conference opener for both schools. It's hard to get a reading on Kent's non-conference results - they won their opener at Iowa State, but the Cyclones also lost to Northern Iowa the following week before upsetting Iowa last week. Kent State's other OOC win was against FCS member Delaware State. Akron's non-conference results seem more impressive to me - especially the pair of losses to Indiana and Ohio State by an average of just 17.5 points. So far this year, the computer is 2-0 ATS with Kent State and 2-1 with Akron. It's a combined 6-0 SU with these schools.
Akron won 27-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Georgia 0.64 over ALABAMA (-3.5) - A "battle royale" in the south. These border teams should play every year but, unfortunately, they reside in different divisions of the SEC. The two schools haven't met since 2003 and Alabama hasn't beaten Georgia since 1995.
Georgia won 26-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oregon State 0.75 over ARIZONA STATE (-11.5) - Oregon State (2-1, 0-0) is 2-0 at home and outscored their opponents 85-17. The only trip away from Corvallis resulted in a 34-3 beat-down at the hands of Cincinnati. That's the only reason I can figure that the line is tilted so heavily toward the homestanding Sun Devils (3-0, 0-0) in Tempe.  This will be the fourth straight home game for ASU, which has thus far beaten San Jose State, Colorado and San Diego State.  This will be a good PAC-10 test for both teams.
Arizona State won 44-32. The computer lost SU, lost ATS

BUFFALO 3.89 over Baylor (-4) - Baylor has served as TCU's only victim, smacked down Rice (like everyone else), and barely got by Texas Southern (FCS). Buffalo has already played at Rutgers, Temple and Penn State. The Bulls performed admirably at Happy Valley and obliterated the Owls in Philadelphia, 42-7. The computer is a combined 116-28 (.806) SU with these schools since 2001.
Baylor won 34-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Northern Illinois 9.30 over IDAHO (-3) - The Huskies have been a major disappointment this season, struggling to an 0-3 start that includes back-to-back home losses to perennial MAC bottom-feeder Eastern Michigan, and FCS member Southern Illinois. Conversely, former Washington State defensive coordinator Robb Akey has the Vandals playing decent defense. This game offers Idaho a great opportunity to end its seven-game losing streak to FBS schools.
Northern Illinois won 42-35. The computer won SU, won ATS.

INDIANA 5.49 over Illinois (-3) - The Hoosiers have improved by exactly one win in each of the last four years. Last season's 5-7 finish was just its second five-win season in the last thirteen years. Illinois has not won more than three games since 2002. A victory would make Illinois 3-1 for the first time since 2001. A win would make Indiana 4-0 for the first time since 1990.
Illinois won 27-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TOLEDO 11.74 over Iowa State (-4) - The Rockets have been horrible this year with losses to Purdue, Central Michigan and Kansas by an average of 27 points. Iowa State has been schizophrenic with losses to Kent State and Northern Iowa followed by an upset victory over arch-rival Iowa. Last year was the first-ever meeting between the two schools and Iowa State won a 45-43 shootout in Ames. This game takes place at the Glass Bowl.
Toledo won 36-35. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NOTRE DAME 9.14 over Michigan State (-12.5) - The visitor has won the last six games in this series. Notre Dame hasn't defeated the Spartans in South Bend since 1993. Notre Dame has lost five straight for the first time since 1985-1986. It hasn't lost six straight since 1960. The Spartans are 3-0, but on their first venture outside the friendly confines of East Lansing. Though the computer picks Notre Dame to win this game, its predicted margin has been cut in half since preseason (18.58 to 9.14).
Michigan State won 31-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

San Jose State 4.60 over UTAH STATE (-3) - Apparently, the Spartans were a one-hit wonder last year. The 37-0 thud at Stanford last week put a serious exclamation point on the Spartans' demise. However, the Aggies have lost 9 straight and are 1-9 against SJSU since 1986.
San Jose State won 23-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.



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