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9/19/13-9/21/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 31-2 SU (.939), 22-11 ATS (.667)
This Week: 9-0 SU (1.000), 6-3 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 19
Clemson (-13) by 14.50 over N.C. STATE - Clemson has won 8 of the last 9 meetings, and 5 of the last 7 wins have been by 14 points or more.
Clemson won 26-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Friday, September 20
FRESNO STATE (-3) by 3.16 over Boise State - Fresno State has dropped 7 straight in the series and 11 of the last 12, and many of those were blowouts. But, the Bulldogs fell by just 10 AT Boise State last year in Tim DeRuyter's first season as head coach and the oddsmakers are basically setting the line at nothing more than home field advantage.
Fresno State won 41-40. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 21
Wyoming (-2.5) by 5.11 over AIR FORCE - Wyoming almost won its opener at Nebraska and has since blown out a pair of weak opponents. Air Force has lost back-to-back games by an average of 27 points. The Cowboys have offensive balance while the Falcons are a one-dimensional running team and only rank 110th on defense.
Wyoming won 56-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-6) by 16.16 over AKRON - Last week's performance at Michigan shouldn't fool you - Akron has lost 24 straight games to FBS opponents and ranks 102nd on offense and 108th on defense. The computer's preseason margin was 17.76 so it hasn't changed much after 3 games
Louisiana-Lafayette won 35-30. The computer won SU, lost ATS..

LSU (-14) by 22.16 over Auburn - Auburn has already won as many games (3) as all of last season and is 1-0 in the SEC, but the computer's margin has barely budged since the preseason.
LSU won 35-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

LOUISVILLE (-41) by 44.46 over Fiu - If the 'Ville wants to, it could drop 100 on FIU. The question is how bad will it be before Charlie Strong calls off the dogs. The Cardinals are in the top 20 on both sides of the ball. FIU is in the bottom 20. The Golden Panthers lost 38-13 at home to FCS member Bethune-Cookman this past Saturday.
Lousiville won 72-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-3.5) by 11.56 over North Carolina - There isn't much 2013 season history from which to draw solid conclusions as each school as played 1 FCS team and 1 FBS school. UNC only lost by 17 at South Carolina while the Yellow Jackets' best opponent to-date is Duke. Georgia Tech has won 11 of the last 14 meetings, including 45-35 in Chapel Hill last year.
Georgia Tech won 28-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UCLA (-38) by 41.61 over New Mexico State - The No. 5 offense of the Bruins faces the No. 124 defense. NMSU's 88th-ranked offense faces UCLA's 43rd-ranked defense. If UCLA can put 38 unanswered on the board at Nebraska, hanging 52+ on the Aggies should be a breeze and I don't see NMSU scoring 13.
UCLA won 59-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SYRACUSE (-10.5) by 14.40 over Tulane - This should really be no contest. 2011 was the only meeting between these schools since 1999, but the Orange have won 7 of the 8 games played by an average score of 28.4-14.5.
Syracuse won 52-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 26-1 SU (.963), 11-16 ATS (.407)
This Week: 8-0 SU (1.000), 3-5 ATS (.375)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 21
Wake Forest (-4) by 2.50 over ARMY - Considering Army's fine showing vs. Stanford, a win over Wake wouldn't be surprising.
Wake Forest won 25-11. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Toledo (-13) by 3.17 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN - CMU was the computer's pick to win the MAC West in a very tight race.
Toledo won 38-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Middle Tennessee (-4) by 3.90 over FAU - The Owls look to halt a 5-game losing streak to the Blue Raiders who eked out a win at home vs. Memphis last week while FAU was clobbering in-state foe USF 28-10.
Middle Tennessee won 42-35 The computer won SU, lost ATS.

GEORGIA (-36.5) by 21.08 over North Texas - This is one of those games where the difference between the line and computer is just too much to pass on.
Georgia won 45-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEVADA (-14) by 7.90 over Hawaii - So far, both teams have proven to be nothing short of awful. Tough to imagine the Wolf Pack gaining a 15-point separation.
Nevada won 31-9. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

IOWA (-19) by 10.49 over Western Michigan - Believe it or not, Iowa is 0-2 vs. WMU with both games played this century (2000 and 2007).
Iowa won 59-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-11) by 7.49 over Marshall - The nation's 2nd-ranked Virginia Tech defense is something awful to face. Conversely, QB Logan Thomas and the Virginia Tech offense is something awful to watch. You have to be able to score to win by 12 points or more. I look for something in the 20-13 or 20-10 range.
Virginia Tech won 29-21 in triple-OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Vanderbilt (-36) by 31.99 over MASSACHUSETTS - I just don't see Vandy as an offensive juggernaut that can pile up the points on the road. They beat UMass by 42 at home last year.
Vanderbilt won 24-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 16-20 SU (.444), 25-11 ATS (.694)
This Week: 3-7 SU (.300), 7-3 ATS (.700)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 21
RUTGERS by 11.96 over Arkansas (-1) - Rutgers hasn't lost a home game in the first half of a season since 2010.
Rutgers won 28-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MEMPHIS by 0.03 over Arkansas State (-3) - Arkansas State was the computer's pick in the preseason by 0.62 so, either way, it hasn't seen Arkansas State covering 3.
Memphis won 31-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

DUKE by 1.75 over Pittsburgh (-6) - Duke downing Pitt wouldn't be that big of an upset. Both schools are already 0-1 in the ACC as Duke lost last weekend to Georgia Tech and Pitt lost its season opener vs. Florida State. Duke is 2-1 overall and Pitt is 1-1.
Pittsburgh won 58-55. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

INDIANA by 0.87 over Missouri (-5.5) - Indiana's 32-point blowout of Bowling Green was impressive considering the computer, and a lot of other folks, thought BGSU would win. The Hoosiers boast the No. 8 offense in the country through 3 games.
Missouri won 45-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Louisiana Tech by 2.21 over KANSAS (-9) - Louisiana Tech has looked terrible under Skip Holtz who crashed and burned as the head coach at USF. Kansas has lost 22 straight games vs. FBS schools. Both teams have only managed 1 win and those came against FCS schools by modest margins.
Kansas won 13-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

West Virginia by 6.14 over Maryland (-4.5) (at Baltimore) - Take Georgia State (1st-year FBS) and William & Mary (FCS) out of the equation and WVU has just 2 FBS wins (Iowa State and Kansas) since the middle of last season. Maryland is 3-0 after winning 4 games all of last year.
Maryland won 37-0. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

San Jose State by 1.74 over MINNESOTA (-5) - The computer has favored SJSU in this game since the preseason when it projected the Spartans to win by 2.54.
Minnesota won 43-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

SAN DIEGO STATE by 0.32 over Oregon State (-8) - SDSU was supposed to be a force to reckon with in the Mountain West, but lost its opener to FCS member Eastern Illinois 40-18 at home. Oregon State also lost its opener to an FCS member - Eastern Washington.
Oregon State won 34-30. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Utah State by 1.59 over USC (-7) - The "Fire Lane" chants will get extremely loud at the Coliseum if Utah State even hangs around the Trojans. But the Aggies bring the more experienced QB to the table with Chuckie Keeton who has already thrown 12 TD passes to just 1 INT while completing nearly 80% of his throws. USC did find hope in Cody Kessler who was 15-of-17 passing in last weekend's 35-7 win over Boston College.
USC won 17-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Utsa by 9.96 over UTEP (-1) - Former Miami Hurricanes head coach Larry Coker has UTSA playing well with an 8-point win at New Mexico and respectable losses to Oklahoma State (56-35) and Arizona (38-13). UTEP lost at home to New Mexico in OT 42-35.
UTSA won 32-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.


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