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9/17/09-9/19/09

FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26		 Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24		 Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21		 Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 15-6 SU (.714), 10-11 ATS (.476)
Last Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 5-2 ATS (.714)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)

Saturday, September 19
Bowling Green (-2.5) by 4.01 over MARSHALL - BGSU upset Troy in week 1 and had Missouri on the ropes last week. Marshall squeaked past Southern Illinois in week 1 and surrendered over 600 yards last week at Virginia Tech, one of the worst offenses in the FBS last year.
Marshall won 17-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

BYU (-6.5) by 8.35 over Florida State - BYU has outgained Oklahoma and Tulane by an average of 219 yards while FSU has outgained Miami and Jacksonville State (FCS) by an average of 10. The Cougars have won 18 straight home games.
Florida State won 54-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

KANSAS (-20.5) by 29.91 over Duke - Kansas still has Todd Reesing at QB and an offense that ranks 5th nationally. Duke ranks 64th on defense after playing Army and Richmond (FCS).
Kansas won 44-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-17) by 17.40 over Miami, O. - Western Michigan averaged over 260 passing yards in games at Michigan and Indiana. Miami is 12th out of 13 MAC teams in passing defense. The Broncos' home opener comes against an inept Miami team that has lost its first two games by a combined 90-0 to Kentucky and Boise State. Miami's first-year head coach is Mike Haywood, the former offensive coordinator at Notre Dame, but the team is averaging just 191 total yards.
Western Michigan won 48-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Northwestern (-4.5) by 9.43 over SYRACUSE - How can you not go against a Syracuse team that has only won 10 games in 4 years? The Orange are off to an 0-2 start under new head coach Doug Marrone.
Syracuse won 37-34. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-3.5) by 8.88 over Nebraska - A must win for Virginia Tech in Blacksburg where the Hokies have won 9 straight and lost just three times since 2005. The Hokies have won 31 consecutive non-conference home games.
Virginia Tech won 16-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 15-3 SU (.833), 6-12 ATS (.333)
Last Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 2-4 ATS (.333)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 3-3 ATS (.500)

Saturday, September 19
IOWA (-6) by 2.63 over Arizona - Arizona ranks 15th in offense and defense. Iowa doesn't rank higher than 58th in either category.
Iowa won 27-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

BAYLOR (-7) by 1.63 over Connecticut - UConn won last year's meeting at home 31-28. Baylor hasn't played since edging Wake Forest 24-21 on the road in its' opener.
Connecticut won 30-22. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-10) by 3.75 over East Carolina - ECU won the last meeting in 2007. The Pirates have won only once in 9 tries at Chapel Hill, but 10 points seems high when UNC needed a late safety to win at UConn last week.
North Carolina won 31-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

PURDUE (-14.5) by 6.32 over Northern Illinois - NIU lost by just 8 at Wisconsin in the season opener. Purdue ranks 100th in total defense and 101st in scoring defense.
Northern Illinois won 28-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Ohio State (-21) by 19.70 over Toledo (at Cleveland) - The Buckeyes took a 4-point win over Navy and a 3-point loss to USC. Now they face the No. 7 team in total offense when they tackle the Rockets on a neutral field. Toledo hung points 31 on Purdue and 54 on Colorado.
Ohio State won 38-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS (-17.5) by 12.10 over Texas Tech - The last three games have all been decided by 16 points or less. The Longhorns will be seeking revenge for last season's miraculous victory by the Red Raiders in Lubbock. Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts leads the nation in passing with 430.5 yards per game. Though Michael Crabtree is gone, WR Edward Britton is still around after burning Texas for 139 yards on 7 catches last year. Texas' Colt McCoy ranks 7th nationally and WR Jordan Shipley ranks 10th.
Texas won 34-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 8-13 SU (.381), 11-10 ATS (.524)
Last Week: 1-3 SU (.250), 3-1 ATS (.750)
This Week: 4-8 SU (.333), 5-7 ATS (.417)

Saturday, September 19
Georgia by 4.79 over ARKANSAS (-1) - Georgia is 5-0 vs. the Razorbacks since losing to the Hogs in 1993. The teams haven't met since 2005. Arkansas had an extra week to prepare for this game after beating Missouri State (FCS) in the opener.
Georgia won 52-41. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Ball State by 14.47 over ARMY (-6.5) - Ball State has already lost to North Texas and FCS member New Hampshire and that makes this pick look bad. However, North Texas is definitely improved and New Hampshire makes a habit of beating FBS teams. Army is coming off a 35-19 home loss to Duke.
Army won 24-17.The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

West Virginia by 2.75 over AUBURN (-4.5) - Gene Chizik is off to an 2-0 start with Auburn, outscoring Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State by a combined 86-37. WVU is also 2-0 and looked better vs. East Carolina than it did in the opener vs. Liberty. The Mountaineers beat the Tigers 34-17 in Morgantown last year but a whole lot has changed since then, including Auburn's head coach and WVU's QB.
Auburn won 41-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Boston College by 0.48 over CLEMSON (-6.5) - Clemson returns home after a painful loss at Georgia Tech last Thursday night in which it rallied from a 24-0 deficit to take the lead, only to end up losing 30-27. Frank Spaziani is 2-0 as the new head coach of the Eagles, outscoring FCS member Northeastern and Kent State by a combined 88-7. Spaziani is considered to be one of college football's top defensive masterminds and was the DC under Jeff Jagodzinski and Tom O'Brien in Chestnut Hill. In all, this is his 13th season with the school.
Clemson won 25-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Buffalo by 0.50 over UCF (-5) - Hard to get a read on these two teams, yet. The Bulls lost RB James Starks for the season due to injury before game one was even played and only has 217 team rushing yards in two games. They went to El Paso and beat UTEP in the opener, then got rolled at home last week vs. Pitt as they lost the turnover battle 4-0. UCF struggled past Samford (FCS) in week 1, but looked better in a 26-19 loss at Southern Miss. The Knights only have 476 yards total offense in two games.
UCF Won 23-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Cincinnati by 1.68 over OREGON STATE (-3.5) - Cincy has looked like a team on a mission. Oregon State has been unimpressive in wins over Portland State (FCS) and UNLV, and needed a 33-yard FG with 7 seconds left to defeat the latter.
Cincinnati won 28-18. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Nevada by 4.21 over COLORADO STATE (-1.5) - Nevada hasn't played since taking an opening week 35-0 pasting at Notre Dame. Colorado State had to rally to beat Weber State (FCS) and needed a 4th quarter fumble recovery to preserve the win.
Colorado State won 35-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

IDAHO by 2.60 over San Diego State (-3) - Brady Hoke is 1-1 as the head coach of the Aztecs, but still looking for his first win against a FBS school. SDSU hasn't posted a winning record since 1998. Idaho hasn't won more than 4 games in a year since 2000, but is also 1-1 after winning at lowly New Mexico State in the opener.
Idaho won 34-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KENT STATE by 12.07 over Iowa State (-1) - New ISU head coach Paul Rhoads is 1-1, but still looking for his first win vs. the FBS. His Cyclones were destroyed at home by rival Iowa 35-3 last week. Kent State is 12th in the MAC in offense, but 2nd in defense.
Iowa State won 34-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Middle Tennessee by 0.77 over MARYLAND (-10) - An opening 10-point line for Maryland was shocking to me. The Terps have looked awful and MTSU won last year's match 24-14 in Murfreesboro.
Middle Tennessee won 32-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Michigan State by 1.56 over NOTRE DAME (-11) - Both teams are looking to rebound from last-second losses. The Spartans fell at home to Central Michigan when they gave up 9 points in the final 32 seconds on a TD, followed by a successful onside kick and field goal. The Irish lost at Michigan on a TD pass with 5 seconds left. The Spartans have won 6 straight at South Bend, and 9 of the last 12 overall.
Notre Dame won 33-30. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Utah by 2.41 over OREGON (-6.5) - The Utes will be going for their 17th straight win when they visit an Oregon team that is still in transition from head coach Mike Bellotti to former offense coordinator Chip Kelly.
Oregon won 31-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.