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9/17/08-9/20/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2008 Regular Season: 19-7 SU (.731), 11-15 ATS (.423)
Last Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)

Saturday, September 20
INDIANA (-3) by 4.80 over Ball State
- I like Ball State and so does the computer, but this is nothing more than home field advantage for the Big Ten vs. the MAC.
Ball State won 42-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Houston (-6) by 10.07 over COLORADO STATE - The Rams have been crushed by Colorado and barely survived FCS member Sacramento State. A 6-point Houston win isn't much to expect. The game features two new head coaches who are each seeking their first win over an FBS team - Kevin Sumlin with Houston and Steve Fairchild with CSU.
Colorado State won 28-25. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

East Carolina (-7) by 18.43 over N.C. STATE - "They" say 7, the computer says more than 18. The computer seems confident though it doesn't take into consideration that LB Quentin Cotton (2 INT's, 1-1/2 sacks) is out for the season for East Carolina.
N.C. State won 30-24 in overtime. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Usf (-28) by 32.37 over FIU - The Golden Panthers will christen their brand new on-campus stadium (18,000 capacity) against what may be the second-best FBS program in the state right now. FIU's offense ranks last in the FBS with an average of 178.5 total yards to put it over 55 yards per game behind the next-worst team (Virginia). The Golden Panthers lost by an average of 36 points at Kansas (40-10) and Iowa (42-0).
USF won 17-9. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UNLV (-2.5) by 3.91 over Iowa State - The Rebels are coming off of a huge road win at Arizona State where they were predicted to lose by more than 3 TD's. You have to like their chances at home against the Cyclones.
UNLV won 34-31 in overtime. The computer won SU, won ATS.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-2.5) by 2.90 over Kent State - The MAC visits the Sun Belt. The homestanding Ragin' Cajuns should be able to hand the Golden Flashes. Kent State's opening win at Iowa State last year was its first non-conference road win since 1987 (Kansas), and only its second such victory since 1976 (Hawaii).
Louisiana-Lafayette won 44-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 17-5 SU (.773), 13-9 ATS (.591)
Last Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 3-4 ATS (.429)
This Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 3-2 ATS (.600)

Saturday, September 20
TULANE (-6) by 0.67 over Louisiana-Monroe -
Monroe laid an egg in the opener at Auburn, blew a win over Arkansas, then finally broke through with a victory last week over FCS member Alabama A&M. Tulane turned some heads when it nearly knocked off East Carolina last week, and played Alabama tough in A 20-7 opening loss. The WarHawks were the computer's preseason pick by 0.88, but it now favors Tulane by 0.67.
Tulane won 24-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TULSA (-11) by 4.72 over New Mexico - New Mexico is coming off  a huge win at home over Arizona. Tulsa is chugging along in its passing game as David Johnson leads the nation in passing efficiency with a sick rating of 241.6. Johnson is 45-of-57 for 750 yards and 9 TD's in wins at North Texas and UAB.
Tulsa won 56-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UTEP (-6.5) by 5.71 over New Mexico State - NMSU may win this game outright. UTEP has been clobbered 42-17 at Buffalo and 42-13 at home by Texas. The Aggies have just one game under their belt, losing 38-7 at Nebraska last week with its opener against Nicholls State (FCS) canceled due to Hurricane Gustav.
New Mexico State won 34-33. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

NORTHWESTERN (-11) by 2.31 over Ohio - The Bobcats only lost by 12 at Ohio State and that was because they played giveaway with the football. Ohio losses to Central Michigan (31-28) and Wyoming (21-20) were also tight.
Northwestern won 16-8. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OHIO STATE (-21.5) by 14.47 over Troy - Ohio State faces the Trojans in back-to-back weeks. It's not USC, but Troy is a good team that's known for pestering BCS schools with wins over Oklahoma State last year and Missouri in 2004. The computer prediction on this game has shrunk from a 22-point preseason advantage to under 15 points now.
Ohio State won 28-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 8-9 SU (.471), 9-8 ATS (.529)
Last Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 2-3 ATS (.400)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 3-3 ATS (.500)

Wednesday, September 17
LOUISVILLE by 6.74 over Kansas State (-4) -
Kansas State takes its first road trip of the season after opening with a pair of softies - North Texas and Montana State (FCS) - that taught us nothing about the Wildcats. Louisville has a win over Tennessee Tech last week after losing 27-2 to Kentucky in Week 1.
Louisville won 38-29. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 20
Fau by 6.25 over MINNESOTA (-7) -
It's the second straight venture into Big Ten country for the Owls who lost 17-0 in a downpour at Michigan State last week. FAU beat the Golden Gophers 42-39 at Dolphin Stadium last year. Minnesota has been an honorary member of the MAC, pocketing wins over Northern Illinois and Bowling Green. The computer is 67-17 in picking Minnesota games correctly since 2001, and it's 30-8 with FAU since they moved up to the FBS in 2005.
Minnesota won 37-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Mississippi State 2.79 over GEORGIA TECH (-7.5) - The Bulldogs might have to find some offense for this to happen. Mississippi State lost 3-2 to Auburn last week. Georgia Tech already as a 3-point road win at Boston College and a tough 3-point road loss last week at Virginia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are trending in the right direction, trimming almost 5 points off the computer's preseason prediction for this game.
Georgia Tech won 38-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS A&M by 6.11 over Miami, Fla. (-4) - Texas A&M will be looking for revenge after Miami administered a 34-17 spanking to Texas A&M in Miami last year, jumping out to a 24-0 halftime lead and going up 31-0 before A&M hit the scoreboard. Miami's record was 3-1 after the win, but the Hurricanes only won two more games the rest of the 2007 season. Both teams enter this game with 1-1 records. Texas A&M beat New Mexico 28-22 after losing the opener to Arkansas State. The 'Canes won their opener over Charleston Southern (FCS) before losing at Florida 26-3.
Miami, Fla. won 41-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Vanderbilt by 0.70 over MISSISSIPPI (-6.5) - Ole Miss is 2-1 with wins over Memphis and Samford (FCS), and a loss at Wake Forest. Vanderbilt would go to 4-0 with a win after previous victories over Miami (Ohio), South Carolina and Rice. The Commodores opened 4-0 in 2005, only to finish 5-6. The Rebels were the preseason computer pick in this game by 0.33.
Vanderbilt won 23-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Virginia Tech by 4.01 over NORTH CAROLINA (-1.5) - The Hokies have lost just 1 conference road game in their 4-year history in the ACC.
Virginia Tech won 20-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.




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