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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at
Weekly Picks Help.
|The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 19-8 SU (.704), 11-16 ATS (.407)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 2-4 ATS (.333)
Saturday, September 15
Northern Illinois (-1.5) by 6.64 over ARMY - The Huskies won last year's meeting 49-26 at home.
NIU won 41-40. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
SOUTHERN MISS (-8) by 12.39 over East Carolina - The Golden Eagles lead the series 27-10 with an average winning margin of 9.6, even if you factor in the losses.
East Carolina won 24-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Florida (-2) by 4.85 over TENNESSEE - The Gators have won 5 of the last 6 in Knoxville by more than 2 points.
Florida won 37-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.
LOUISVILLE (-3) by 10.05 over North Carolina - The Cards are getting nothing more than the home field advantage from the oddsmakers while the computer adds on a touchdown.
Louisville won 39-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.
MICHIGAN STATE (-2.5) by 8.48 over Notre Dame - MSU is getting less than home field advantage despite winning 15 straight in Spartan Stadium?
Notre Dame won 20-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Virginia Tech (-9) by 16.95 over PITTSBURGH - The Panthers have given up 422.5 yards per game against Youngstown State and Cincinnati. The Hokies have won 13 straight true road games (at opponents' venue.
Virginia Tech lost 35-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
|HOLD YOUR HORSES:
|The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 15-2 SU (.882), 11-6 ATS (.647)
This Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 4-2 ATS (.667)
Saturday, September 15
SAN JOSE STATE (-16.5) by 8.36 over Colorado State - The 16.5-point spread would represent SJSU's largest winning margin in any game since October 18, 2008 when it beat New Mexico State 31-14.
San Jose State won 40-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
GEORGIA (-44.5) by 36.21 over Fau - Even last year's 1-11 FAU team only lost at Florida by 38 and Michigan State by 44.
Georgia won 56-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Tcu (-26.5) by 25.41 over KANSAS - The Jayhawks won't end their streak of 11 straight losses to FBS foes, but should keep this game respectable at home in TCU's Big 12 debut.
TCU won 20-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-21.5) by 17.18 over La.-Lafayette - The Cowboys won last year's meeting by 27 with far more weapons.
Oklahoma State won 65-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Ohio (-7) by 1.36 over MARSHALL - So far, these teams have delivered about what the computer expected.
Ohio won 27-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.
UTEP (-13) by 7.51 over New Mexico State - DeWayne Walker appears to have the Aggies headed in the right direction while UTEP has struggled to score points with 17 total against Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The Miners won last year's game at Las Cruces by just 6 points.
UTEP won 41-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.
WISCONSIN (-12.5) by 10.44 over Utah State -The Badgers barely got past Northern Iowa and lost at Oregon State. Utah State may actually be the best team they've faced.
Wisconsin won 16-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.
|The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 12-15 SU (.444), 13-14 ATS (.481)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)
Thursday, September 13
Rutgers by 0.61 over USF (-7) - Hard to believe, but USF has 1 Big East win at home in the last two years and that was Rutgers in 2010.
Rutgers won 23-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Saturday, September 15
Ball State by 4.70 over INDIANA (-3.5) - The Cardinals have won the last two meetings - 27-20 in Indianapolis last year and 42-20 at Bloomington in 2008.
Ball State won 41-39. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Western Kentucky by 5.98 over KENTUCKY (-4.5) - This would be an enormous upset in the Bluegrass landscape of college football, but WKU has been catching up. Last year's meeting in Nashville produced a 14-3 Wildcat win.
Western Kentucky won 32-31 in overtime. The computer won SU, won ATS.
MEMPHIS by 0.77 over Middle Tennessee (-4.5) - This is the first time in 33 games vs FBS foes that the computer has picked Memphis to win.
Middle Tennessee won 48-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS>
Western Michigan by 4.06 over MINNESOTA (-1) - The Golden Gophers have lost at home to much-lesser foes, including New Mexico State and North Dakota State in 2011.
Minnesota won 28-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
STANFORD by 0.56 over Usc (-6.5) - The Cardinal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Stanford won 21-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.