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9/10/09-9/12/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 12-3 SU (.800), 8-7 ATS (.533)
Last Week: 5-3 SU (.625), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Saturday, September 12
Byu (-18) by 21.86 over TULANE - Tulane lost at home by 24 to Tulsa last week. If the assumption is that BYU is a better team than Tulsa, this pick is an obvious one.
BYU won 54-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA TECH (-20.5) by 25.60 over Marshall - The last two meetings resulted in Virginia Tech victories by 26 and 27 points, respectively. Marshall barely survived FCS member Southern Illinois last week in Huntington.
Virginia Tech won 52-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (-1) by 4.98 over Memphis - These teams met two years ago in Memphis and MTSU won 21-7. The Blue Raiders were 4-1 at home last year and the Tigers were 2-3 on the road.
Middle Tennessee won 31-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Tulsa (-12.5) by 21.58 over NEW MEXICO - Tulsa won 56-14 at home last year. The Golden Hurricane was favored by 14 at Tulane last week when the computer had them by 25. They won by 24.
Tulsa won 44-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Usc (-4.5) by 9.07 over OHIO STATE - USC won 35-3 in Los Angeles. Ohio State was porous on defense last week in a 31-27 escape of Navy. USC started slow but eventually hung a 56-3 whipping on San Jose State. USC has won 6 straight over the Buckeyes since Ohio State won the 1973 Rose Bowl.
USC won 18-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Utah (-14) by 18.93 over SAN JOSE STATE - Are you serious? 14 points is all that has to be covered?
Utah won 24-14 (missed 3 FG's). The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Tcu (-11.5) by 13.86 over VIRGINIA - UVa lost at home to William & Mary last week by 12 points.
TCU won 30-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 11-1 SU (.917), 3-9 ATS (.250)
Last Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 1-5 ATS (.167)
This Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 2-4 ATS (.333)

Saturday, September 12
MINNESOTA (-6.5) by 2.72 over Air Force - Air Force rushed for 474 yards in the opener. Yes, it was against Nicholls State but don't take the Falcons lightly. The AFA is 6-1 in its last 7 regular season road games. This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Minnesota won 20-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

AUBURN (-12.5) by 11.35 over Mississippi State - The last two meetings were decided by 5 points or less, and last year's game had a 3-2 final in favor of Auburn.
Auburn won 49-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Pitt (-11) by 5.83 over BUFFALO - Pitt only won 27-16 on its home field last year. School career rushing leader James Starks was lost for the season before it even kicked off. But Pitt no longer has RB LeSean McCoy who left school early to pursue an NFL career. Each carried 20 times in last year's ballgame with Starks gaining 97 yards for 0 TD's, and McCoy netting 93 yards and 3 short TD's of 3 yards or less. Last week, the computer correctly forecasted Buffalo's outright upset win at UTEP.
Pitt won 54-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) by 4.79 over East Carolina - East Carolina won 24-3 in Greenville last year. FCS member Liberty had 299 yards of offense in a 33-20 loss to the Mountaineers last week in Morgantown.
West Virginia won 35-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WASHINGTON (-21) by 4.36 over Idaho - The Vandals haven't beaten the Huskies since 1905, but we're only asking them not to lose by more than three touchdowns. Besides, the disparity between the line and the computer is too large for me to pass up.
Washington won 42-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

LSU (-15) by 3.56 over Vanderbilt - These teams meet for the first time since 2005. The Tigers have won the last five meetings with Vandy's last win coming in 1990.
LSU won 23-9. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 4-5 SU (.444), 6-3 ATS (.667)
Last Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 1-3 SU (.250), 3-1 ATS (.750)

Saturday, September 12
Fresno State by 2.57 over WISCONSIN (-9) - Three missed field goals doomed Fresno State in last year's 13-10 loss at Fresno.
Wisconsin won 34-31 in 2 OT's. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

CONNECTICUT by 0.68 over North Carolina (-5) - I have a difficult time buying into this computer upset pick. UNC won 38-12 in Chapel Hill last year and UConn doesn't have RB Donald Brown anymore.
North Carolina won 12-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Western Michigan by 1.01 over INDIANA (-1.5) - The computer had Western Michigan hanging within a point of Michigan last week and the Broncos lost 31-7. But Indiana only managed a 19-13 win over FCS member Eastern Kentucky.
Indiana won 23-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-8.45) over Kansas State (-6) - Kansas State was a 21-17 survivor over FCS member Massachusetts last week while UL-L dismantled its' FCS opponent, Southern, 42-19.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 17-15. The computer won SU, won ATS.




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