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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


DocSports.com http://www.playbyplayinc.com/win.php      

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2013 Regular Season: 111-18 SU (.860), 78-51 ATS (.605)
2014 Regular Season: 40-22 SU (.645), 21-41 ATS (.339)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, October 30
Florida State (-6.5) by 7.42 over LOUISVILLE - The computer game day spread for FSU has been under the preseason spread in virtually every game, and that's no different here as the 'Noles were a 12.34-point selection in this contest before the first pigskin flew in the 2014 season. They've only won two games by more than the preseason spread, but both occurred in 2 of their 4 ACC games (Wake and Syracuse). Louisville's best win is still the opening day victory over Miami, but the Cards are riding a 6-game home winning streak. Of course, that pales in comparison to FSU's winning streaks of 23 overall, 17 in conference, and 10 on the road.

Friday, November 31
Cincinnati (-2.5) by 5.15 over TULANE - The preseason spread was just 1.61. The computer's trend line is over 8. The Bearcats have won 2 straight. The Green Wave have dropped 3 of their last 4 while averaging just 11 points on offense.

Saturday, November 1
APPALACHIAN STATE (-5.5) by 11.47 over Georgia State - The Panthers top the Sun Belt in passing offense, but the Mountaineers outrank Georgia State in total offense 3rd to 7th. GSU is last in the league in total defense while Appalachian State ranks 5th.

ARIZONA STATE (-2.5) by 6.82 over Utah - The line had risen to the 4.5-6.0 range by Wednesday afternoon. The Sun Devils outrank Utah on offense 23rd to 78th, but the Utes outrank ASU on defense 55th to 72nd. Utah's last 3 games have been decided by 3 points or less, or in double-overtime.

EAST CAROLINA (-7) by 8.15 over TEMPLE - The Owls have lost their last 2 games to Houston and UCF by 20 and 21, respectively, and the Pirates own the nation's No. 4-ranked offense. Temple ranks 111th on defense.

Georgia (-13) by 18.49 over Florida (at Jacksonville) - The computer trend line has this game close to a 23-point margin. Take out the Eastern Michigan game and the Gator offense is scoring just 21.2 points. 'Bama and Missouri beat UF by 21 and 29, respectively. The line has stayed at 13 since the opening.

GEORGIA TECH (-4) by 7.66 over Virginia - The Jackets have won 4 of the last 5 meetings by anywhere from 10 to 36 points. Virginia ranks 9th in stopping the run but GT averages nearly 100 yards more per game on the ground than any previous Cavalier opponent. Both teams have losses to Duke and North Carolina, and a win over Pitt. Georgia Tech is 6-2 on the season while Virginia is 4-4.

Utah State (-2) by 10.58 over HAWAII - Utah State (5-3) QB's Chuckie Keeton, Craig Harrison and Darrell Garretson have all been injured so freshman Kent Myers will get the start at Hawaii (2-6). The computer trend line favors the Aggies by 7.

Houston (-10) by 17.47 over USF - The trend line is 19. Both offenses rank 85th or worse, but the Cougar defense outranks USF 19th to 94th.

OHIO STATE (-28.5) by 30.17 over Illinois - The computer trend line is a whopping 38. The Illini rank 79th on offense and 114th on defense. The Buckeyes rank 19th on offense and 11th on defense. Ohio State has won 6 straight in the series, including 2 of those by 30.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-4.5) by 10.45 over South Alabama - The Ragin' Cajuns have defeated Texas State and Arkansas State in their last two outings by 24 and 15 points, respectively. The Jaguars edged Georgia State by 3 and lowly Troy by 14.

Texas State (-8.5) by 12.60 over NEW MEXICO STATE - The computer trend line is 16-1/2. Texas State has 2nd-best rushing game in the league and 21st in the nation. NMSU has the worst rushing defense in the league and the nation. The Aggies rank 67th in passing offense while the Bobcats are 56th in defending the pass.

UTEP (-5) by 8.45 over Southern Miss - The UTEP trend line is over 10. Both teams have played a little better than expected but the Miners have wins over Old Dominion and UTSA in their last 2 outings and only fell to Texas Tech by 4 early in the year.

Texas Christian (-4) by 5.59 over WEST VIRGINIA - TCU was only a 1.27-point computer pick in the preseason so its spread has climbed 4.3 points. The trend line is close to 10. The Horned Frogs hung 82 on Texas Tech last week and have scored 56 or more three times, losing one of those to Baylor 61-58.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2013 Regular Season: 70-12 SU (.854), 41-41 ATS (.500)
2014 Regular Season: 44-5 SU (.898), 20-29 ATS (.408)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 1
Air Force (-5.5) by 1.66 over ARMY - These teams are so similar, it's silly. Both have 423 rushes. Both are in the top 12 nationally in averaging rushing yards per game and the bottom 10 in passing. Army has been rushed against 237 times vs. the Air Force at 246. The differences are that the Black Knights gain 5.58 per attempt to the Falcons' 4.52, and Army is allowing 176 while the Air Force has averaged 146 and limited Navy to 251. A win would give Air Force it's first Commander-In-Chief's Trophy since 2011 and 19th overall. A loss would allow Navy to retain the trophy if the Midshipmen beat Army in December. Army won the last match-up at West Point by 20 points in 2012.

Arkansas State (-16) by 10.97 over Idaho - The Red Wolves have only 1 win all year by more than 16 points and that came against Sun Belt cellar dweller Georgia State, 52-10, three weeks ago.

Brigham Young (-9) by 3.63 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE - BYU is trending down since losing Taysom Hill to injury for the season in the loss to Utah State on October 3rd. The computer trend line now only favors the Cougars by 1-1/2.

Rice (-8) by 6.91 over FIU - The trend line is only 3-1/2. The Golden Panthers own Conference USA's 2nd-ranked defensive unit (1st against the pass). These teams have never met.

OREGON (-12.5) by 4.88 over Stanford - The last two meetings have been won by Stanford, but the computer likes the Ducks to get one back. The computer trend line likes Oregon by 7, but that's still well short of the 12.5-point spread that has dropped to around 8 since the opening.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2013 Regular Season: 47-48 SU (.495), 59-36 ATS (.694)
2014 Regular Season: 30-35 SU (.462), 33-32 ATS (.508)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 1
SAN JOSE STATE by 3.83 over Colorado State (-7) - It's tough to argue with the oddsmakers as Colorado State is 7-1 on the year and 3 wins ahead of where the computer thought they would be at this point. The only loss was at Boise State. SJSU is a game behind their preseason forecast, but have won 3 straight in this series by at least 7 points.

Duke by 8.29 over PITTSBURGH (-1.5) - At this point of the season, the computer is forecasting Duke to clinch the ACC Coastal and lose again to FSU in the ACC title game. Pitt had 5 turnovers in the first quarter of last Saturday's 56-28 home loss to Georgia Tech. Pitt won last year's meeting with Duke in a 58-55 shootout. Duke has lost 4 straight to the Panthers dating back to 1969.

Western Kentucky by 0.13 over LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5) - Louisiana Tech (5-3) is a tough team to figure. The Bulldogs beat UL-Lafayette by 28 when they were 24-point underdogs back in Week 2. But other than losses to Oklahoma and Auburn, they haven't really played anyone of any consequence in their own conference. Western Kentucky (3-4) is 4th in the nation in scoring at 45.6 points per game, but the Hilltoppers have allowed 41.1 per game. Louisiana Tech has scored 32.9 per game and allowed 25.9. This is the first-ever meeting.



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