Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,445-484 (.749) SU, 945-926 (.505) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	1-1 (.500)	1-1 (.500)
Last Week	6-1 (.857)	4-3 (.571)
This Season	45-14 (.763)	36-23 (.610)
Last Season	48-10 (.828)	33-25 (.569)

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MIAMI, OHIO (-1.5) by 8.09 Northern Illinois - Tuesday, November 19. The computer trend line has the RedHawks (6-4, 5-1 MAC) favored by 5.13 over the visiting Huskies (6-4, 3-3). Miami is riding a 4-game winning streak while NIU has won 2 straight. Of course, the Huskies made news early in the season by winning 16-14 at Notre Dame. Miami was the leader in the preseason MAC coaches' poll, as well as the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. NIU was projected by the computer to finish in a tie for the second while the coaches had the Huskies tying for 3rd. This game features the conference's No. 1 (NIU) and No. 3 (Miami) defenses, and the No. 1 (NIU) and No. 7 (offenses). We expect Miami to improve to 4-1 at home in a close game, behind the passing attack led by Bret Gabbert as the RedHawks look to continue their march to back-to-back conference titles. Miami has won 3 straight in the series to take an 11-9 lead.

SUATSMiami won 20-9

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-1.5) by 7.70 over Buffalo - Wednesday, November 20. Eastern Michigan, despite being 5-5 overall on the field and 2-4 in MAC play, is 7-3 ATS over-all and 4-1 at home. Buffalo, which is 6-4 over-all and 4-2 in the MAC, is just 2-3 ATS on the road. The computer trend line has the Eagles by just 3. EMU ranks better in the MAC on offense (4th vs. 9th) and defense (7th vs. 10th). The Eagles lead the series 7-4 after snapping a 3-game losing streak with last year's win at Buffalo.

SUATSBuffalo won 37-20

GEORGIA TECH (-8.5) by 9.72 over NC State - Thursday, November 21. The Jackets (6-4, 4-3) are 4-0 on their actual home field at Bobby Dodd Stadium (the Notre Dame loss was in Mercedes-Benz). The Ramblin' Wreck have a whopping 18.91-point edge on the computer trend line. Among ACC teams, GT outranks NCSU on offense (8th to 13th) and defense (2nd vs. 12th). The Pack are 5-5, 2-4 with both conference wins vs. the new west coast teams, Cal and Stanford. This is only the Wolfpack's 3rd game at an opponent's venue and they were 1-1 ATS in the other 2, while GT is 3-0-1 ATS at home and 3-1-1 over-all as the favorite.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,091-297 (.791) SU, 736-652 (.530) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
Last Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
This Season	10-8 (.556)	9-9 (.500)
Last Season	22-7 (.759)	12-17 (.414)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2023), the computer's upset picks are 1,027-864 ATS (.543).

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
Last Week	2-2 (.500)	2-2 (.500)
This Season	33-51 (.393)	40-44 (.476)
Last Season	49-61 (.445)	61-51 (.545)

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. Here are just a few examples. In 2024, it had Ole Miss over Georgia and the Rebels won 28-10. Earlier in the year, it had Oregon by 1 against a 3.5-point spread for Ohio State and the Ducks won by 1 with a 32-31 final. It had Alabama's upset of Georgia to end the Bulldogs' streaks of 42 regular season wins and 16 straight true road wins. The same day, it also had Louisiana-Lafayette winning at Wake Forest and five more upset wins for a total of seven in one day. Earlier in 2024, it had USC over LSU, Notre Dame over Texas A&M, and Toledo over Mississippi State. The following week, it correctly picked Toledo to lose to Western Kentucky, and SMU by 10.11 when the line favored TCU by 2.5 (SMU won by 24). In 2023, it nailed South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. In week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright upset winners and 8-2 against the spread. In 2022, it had FSU over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas over ranked Ole Miss. Further back, the computer correctly picked Clemson's 2018 upset over Alabama in the Natty after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

The computer is 8-8 SU and ATS over the last three weeks on its upsets forecast. These are the computer's only opposite picks this week.

Brigham Young by 5.11 over ARIZONA STATE (-3.5) - Saturday, November 23. This computer pick seems iffy and it's own trend line has the Sun Devils favored by 3.62. Check back later for more commentary and analysis.

BOSTON COLLEGE by 3.12 over North Carolina (-2.5) - Saturday, November 23. This computer pick is backed up the trend line which favors the Eagles by 3.83, but it doesn't take into account the loss of Thomas Castellanos at QB who left the team after being demoted in the days leading up to this past weekend's game which the Eagles lost 38-28 at SMU. in fairness, BC was ranked next-to-last in the ACC in passing yards per game. UNC has won 5 straight in the series for a 6-2 over-all lead and the last BC win came in 2004.

WEST VIRGINIA by 4.35 over Central Florida (-2.5) - Saturday, November 23. WVU (5-5, 4-3)  is just 2-4 at home, including 1-3 in Big 12 games. UCF (4-6, 2-5) has lost 5 of its last 6 and is 1-3 on the road with 3 straight road losses after the furious comeback win at TCU in week 3. The computer trend line flips this pick to the Knights by 1.99.

FAU by 4.34 over Charlotte (-2.5) - Saturday, November 23. FAU (2-8, 0-6) is last in the AAC (2-8, 0-6) in Tom Herman's second season as head (6-16, 3-9), and losers of 5 straight. Charlotte (3-7, 2-4) has lost 4 straight in Biff Poggi's second season as head coach and his rein has produced similar results as the Owls (6-16, 4-10). These are the No. 11 (FAU) and 13 teams in the 14-team American Conference on offense, and the No. 10 (FAU) and 12 teams on defense. The computer trend line has the visiting 49ers by 1.14. FAU has won 5 straight in the series, and the last 4 by an average score of 35-11.

KANSAS by 3.5 over Colorado (-2.5) - Saturday, November 23. The computer trend line flips this pick to the Buffs by 6.72. Colorado enters this game tied for first with BYU in the Big 12 and has two of the most prolific players in the college game right now with Shedeur Sanders at QB and Travis Hunter seemingly everywhere else at every minute of the game. It might be difficult to call Hunter the best receiver or the best DB, but as we've said along, he should be the Heisman winner. It might be difficult to call Shedeur the best QB, but he's certainly one of them and nearly 81%  of the teams' offense comes through the air.  But Kansas is dangerous with wins in 3 of the last 4 games, and a higher conference rank than Colorado on offense (8 to 11) while the Buffs hold a slight advantage on defense (8 vs. 10).

*-Illinois by 2.86 over RUTGERS (-1.5) - Rugers opened as a small consensus favorite but, as of early Thursday morning, they differed on the favorite so we will keep track of this game to see if still qualifies as an opposite play at kick-off. Saturday, November 23. The trend line pushes the computer's projected margin for Illinois to 4.46 points. The Illini are 2-1 ATS in the road while the Scarlet Knights are 3-3 ATS at home.

Wisconsin by 5.53 over NEBRASKA (-2.50) - Saturday, November 23. The computer trend line favors the Badgers by 7.21. These teams have no real statistical separation on total offense or defense. The 'Huskers are 3-2-1 ATS at home and the Badgers are 2-2 ATS on the road.

OKLAHOMA STATE by 5.57 over Texas Tech (-3.5) - Saturday, November 23. Oklahoma State (3-7, 0-7) is practically the FSU of the Big 12. The conference media voted the Cowboys 3rd in the conference in their preseason poll during media days, and the computer had them tied with Utah at the top. (Obviously, the Utes have collapsed, too). Texas Tech is tied for 7th in the conference after being picked to finish 9th by the media and the computer whose trend line has the Red Raiders by 2.80. Texas Tech is 3-1 ATS on the road, but 0-1 ATS as a road favorite. This game features the conference's No. 2 (Texas Tech) and No. 13 (Oklahoma State) offenses, and the No. 15 (TT) and 16 (OSU) defenses. Given how awful the defenses are, the over/under of 66.5 seems low.