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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


DocSports.com http://www.playbyplayinc.com/win.php      

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2013 Regular Season: 111-18 SU (.860), 78-51 ATS (.605)
2014 Regular Season: 3-2 SU (.600), 1-4 ATS (.200)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 6
Duke (-18) by 19.93 over TROY - Troy lost on opening weekend to UAB 48-10 while Duke was plastering FCS Elon 52-13.

Oregon State (-11) by 16.02 over HAWAII - I had Washington as a pick last week at Hawaii and the Huskies barely eked out the win, but Washington played poorly in the contest. The Beavers won by 19 last year at home.

LOUISIANA-MONROE (-11.5) by 14.64 over Idaho - UL-M beat Wake Forest while Idaho's game at Florida was postponed due to lightning.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-16) by 24.39 over Louisiana Tech - These in-state rivals are meeting for the first time since 2004 so the Bulldogs' string of 6 straight wins in the series means nothing. The Ragin' Cajuns were a preseason computer pick to go 11-1 while Louisiana Tech was projected to finish 4-8. UL-L won last week's game vs. FCS member Southern 45-6 while the Bulldogs were falling 48-16 at Oklahoma.

Maryland (-10) by 19.97 over USF - This might be the most stunningly low line this week. The Bulls had to rally to beat FCS member Western Carolina 36-31 last week while the Terrapins trounced FCS member James Madison 52-7.

NORTH CAROLINA (-13.5) by 18.81 over San Diego State - Another line that seems too low. I'm thinking 20 points or more separate these 2 clubs, despite UNC's early sluggishness vs. FCS member Liberty last week.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2013 Regular Season: 70-12 SU (.854), 41-41 ATS (.500)
2014 Regular Season: 2-1 SU (.667), 1-2 ATS (.333)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 6
PENN STATE (-18) by 13.33 over Akron - The Nittany Lions earned a big last-second win over UCF to start the season while Akron warmed up with a 41-0 rout of FCS member Howard.

Arizona State (-27) by 14.79 over NEW MEXICO - The first meeting since 1977 between these teams. When the series was halted, ASU had won 17 straight and the last win for the Lobos came in 1942. This one has me a bit concerned if only because UNM lost its opener at home to UTEP by 7 when the computer had the Lobos winning by 6.42, but I'm looking for an ASU win in the 21-to-24-point range.

IOWA (-20) by 4.02 over Ball State - Taking this one for the simple reason that the difference between the oddsmakers and the computer is too huge to pass up.

OREGON (-11) by 6.29 over Michigan State - I understand that it's a home game for the high-powered Ducks, but this line reeks of disrespect for the Spartans.

N.C. STATE (-17) by 10.68 over Old Dominion - The Monarchs play their first FBS opponent as a full-fledged member of the FBS themselves. Last week, the Wolfpack barely survived Georgia Southern in that school's first game as a FBS member.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2013 Regular Season: 47-48 SU (.495), 59-36 ATS (.694)
2014 Regular Season: 3-5 SU (.375), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 4
Utsa by 1.59 over ARIZONA (-8)

Friday, September 6
Pittsburgh by 3.08 over BOSTON COLLEGE (-1)

Saturday, September 6
Buffalo by 0.80 over ARMY (-1)
Central Michigan by 7.88 over PURDUE (-2.5)
Fresno State by 6.94 over UTAH (-7.5)
New Mexico State by 3.80 over GEORGIA STATE (-3)
TULANE by 4.57 over Georgia Tech (-10)
Western Kentucky by 2.60 over ILLINOIS (-2.5)
Ohio by 0.57 over KENTUCKY (-6)
TOLEDO by 5.10 over Missouri (-5.5)
NORTH TEXAS by 2.47 over Smu (-1)
Northern Illinois by 1.83 over NORTHWESTERN (-2.5)



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