Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,445-484 (.749) SU, 945-926 (.505) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)
Last Week	5-0 (1.000)	5-0 (1.000)
This Season	55-14 (.797)	44-25 (.638)
Last Season	48-10 (.828)	33-25 (.569)

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Memphis (-4.5) by 5.10 over West Virginia - Tuesday, December 17. Frisco Bowl. Without even considering that West Virginia (6-6) will be led by an interim head coach (OC Chad Scott) after Neal Brown was fired (Rich Rodriguez returning), the computer trend line has the Tigers by a hefty 8.41 points. Memphis (10-2) opened as a 4.5-point underdog and that pointspread had made a complete 180 degree reversal by early Monday morning. Also, as of that time, Memphis' star RB Mario Anderson had not opted out (1,292 yards, 17 TD's + 290 receiving, 2 TD's).  Memphis ranks 22nd in total offense and 24th in passing offense. WVU ranks 103rd in total defense, 125th in pass defense, and 55th in rushing defense. Memphis ranks 55th in total defense with a wild range between the run (10th) and pass (115).  WVU's offense ranks 59th (27th rush, 96th pass). The Mountaineers are 4-14 ATS in bowl games since 2003.

SUATSMemohis won 42-37

Bowling Green (-6.5) by 8.69 over Arkansas State - Thursday December 26.  68 Ventures Bowl. The computer trend line has the Falcons over the Red Wolves by a whopping 16.93. The most telling stat is Bowling Green ranks 29 in total defense while Arkansas State ranks 129. The Red Wolves are 0-4 vs MAC teams since 2014, and 0-2 in bowl games over that same period. BGSU is 4-4 vs. Sun Belt teams all-time, 1-1 in bowl games. The Falcons did, however, lose 30-27 to Sun Belt member ODU at home this season and ODU only finished 5-7.

Miami (-3.5) by 6.79 over Iowa State - Saturday, December 28. Pop Tarts Bowl. The computer trend line has the Hurricanes (10-2) over the Cyclones (10-3) by 15.66 points. The 'Canes led the entire FBS in total offense while the Cyclones ranked 43. And it may not seem like it, but Miami's defense ranks 21, compared to Iowa State at 40.

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,091-297 (.791) SU, 736-652 (.530) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
Last Week	2-0 (1.000)	1-1 (.500)
This Season	13-8 (.619)	11-10 (.524)
Last Season	22-7 (.759)	12-17 (.414)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Kansas State (-6.5) by 2.81 over Rutgers - Thursday, December 26. Rate Bowl. The computer trend line has the Wildcats by (8-4) by 1.73 over the Scarlet Knights (7-5). These teams rank 114 (Kansas State) and 128 in total offense. They rank 69 (Rutgers) and 71 in total defense.

TCU (-13.5) by 4.65 over Louisiana - Saturday, December 28. New Mexico Bowl. The computer trend line has the Horned Frogs (8-4) over the Ragin' Cajuns (10-3) by 8.67. This largely looks like a game of how successful will Louisiana's #29 offense will be against TCU's #55 defense. Going the other way, the Horned Frogs rank #28 on offense while the Ragin' Cajuns are #48 on defense. It was a bit of a shocker that Louisiana lost the Sun Belt title game at home to Marshall badly, 31-3,  when the Ragin' Cajuns entered that game averaging almost 36 per contest. This is the first meeting between these two schools.

Alabama (-10.5) by 5.69 over Michigan - Tuesday, December 31. The computer trend line has the Crimson Tide (9-3) over the Wolverines (7-5) by 8.62 points. The schools are 3-3 in their series. Michigan won the last meeting this past season in a playoff semifinal playoff game in the Rose Bowl, 27-20, in OT. These teams met in this game in the 1987 season when it was called the Hall of Fame Bowl (Michigan 28-24), and again in the 1997 season when this game was called the Outback Bowl (Alabama 17-14).  This game of Alabama's #38 offense versus Michigan's 13th-ranked defense. But the Wolverines bring one of the nation's worst offenses (128th) against the Tide's 32nd-ranked defense.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2023), the computer's upset picks are 1,027-864 ATS (.543).

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-2 (.000)	1-1 (.500)
Last Week	6-3 (.667)	6-3 (.667)
This Season	43-61 (.413)	51-53 (.490)
Last Season	49-61 (.445)	61-51 (.545)

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. Here are just a few examples. In 2024, it had Ole Miss over Georgia and the Rebels won 28-10. Earlier in the year, it had Oregon by 1 against a 3.5-point spread for Ohio State and the Ducks won by 1 with a 32-31 final. It had Alabama's upset of Georgia to end the Bulldogs' streaks of 42 regular season wins and 16 straight true road wins. The same day, it also had Louisiana-Lafayette winning at Wake Forest and five more upset wins for a total of seven in one day. Earlier in 2024, it had USC over LSU, Notre Dame over Texas A&M, and Toledo over Mississippi State. The following week, it correctly picked Toledo to lose to Western Kentucky, and SMU by 10.11 when the line favored TCU by 2.5 (SMU won by 24). In 2023, it nailed South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. In week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright upset winners and 8-2 against the spread. In 2022, it had FSU over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas over ranked Ole Miss. Further back, the computer correctly picked Clemson's 2018 upset over Alabama in the Natty after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

The computer was 24-19 SU and ATS over the last six weeks on its upsets forecast.

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Jax State by 1.72 over Ohio (-5.5) - Friday, December 20 at Noon. Cure Bowl. The computer trend line flips this pick to the MAC's Bobcats by 5.01 points. Both teams are without their coach as Tim Albin has left Ohio for Charlotte and Rich Rodriguez has left Conference USA's Jax State for a second stint at West Virginia. Both coaches led their team to the conference title this season. Opt-outs didn't seem to be a big problem for this game, even with the head coaches gone. During the regular season and respective conference title games, Jax State had the No. 20 offense and Ohio's was No. 56. But Ohio had the No. 8 defense while the Gamecocks ranked 87th.

SUATSOhio won 30-27

Fresno State by 0.06 over Northern Illinois (-3.5) - Monday, December 23. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. These teams haven't met since playing here in 2010 when it still called the Humanitarian Bowl. NIU won that game, 40-17. The Huskies have only two bowl wins, including last year when they broke a 7-bowl losing streak. Fresno State has a 5-bowl winning streak. This will be the final game for Bulldogs' interim head coach Tim Skipper who took over before the season began (mid-July) when Jeff Tedford had to resign for health reasons. Among his transfer portal departures are starting QB Mikey Keene, leaving the start to Joshua Wood or Jayden Mandal who threw 8 passes between them. Wood, however, saw action in every game at wildcat. Receivers Raylen Sharpe and Jalen Moss are also gone, but Mac Dalena remains along with RB Elijah Gilliam. Meanwhile, NIU's list of transfers include starting QB Ethan Hampton who has signed with Illinois. The computer trend line has the Huskies, who are considering accepting an invitation to join the Mountain West, by 1.47.

SUATSNorthern Illinois won 28-20 in 2 OT

*-USF by 8.5 over San Jose Sate (-3.5) - The line flipped to USF by 1.5 by kickoff, disqaulifying this as a computer upset pick as it favored the Bulls by 8.50. Final score was Bulls 41-39 in 5 OT's, for wins outright and ATS. Tuesday. December 24. Hawaii Bowl. SJSU (7-5) lost 24-14 in this game last year to Coastal Carolina. Ken Niumatalolo, head coach of the Spartans, was born in Laie, Hawaii.  Four players are also from Hawaii. The Warriors have dropped their last three bowl games and are looking for their bowl win since 2015. USF (6-6)is 7-4 all-time in bowl games. SJSU won the only prior meeting during the 2017 regular season at San Jose. The computer trend line has the Spartans by 0.70.

Southern Cal by 1.95 over Texas A&M (-3.5) - Friday, December 27. Las Vegas Bowl. The computer trend line has the Trojans by 0.86.

Boston College by 1.48 over Nebraska (-3.5) - Saturday, December 28. Pinstripe Bowl. The computer trend line has Nebraska (6-6) by 1.01 over Boston College (7-5).

Iowa by 7.47 over Missouri (-3.5) - Saturday, December 30. Music City Bowl. The computer trend line has Iowa (8-4) by 6.35 over Missouri (9-3).

Notre Dame by 3.15 over Georgia (-1.5) - Wednesday, January 1, 2025. Sugar Bowl. Georgia would have been favored on a neutral field at the start of the year by nearly 9-1/2 points. Notre Dame is 0-3 all-time versus Georgia.  The offenses are about even in total yards, but Notre Dame has a balanced attack in total yards (53% run), while Georgia leans heavily to the pass (69%) and will not have Carson Beck. Also, the Irish rank 8th in total defense while Georgia ranks 35th.